tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post1838978010005981886..comments2024-01-23T16:53:02.428+00:00Comments on Mark Thompson: Lib Dem polls - keep calm and carry onMark Thompsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00744387583593537268noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-81747634039842563062010-06-29T16:50:21.581+01:002010-06-29T16:50:21.581+01:00Two points, first all the pollsters have changed t...Two points, first all the pollsters have changed their methodology in the last few weeks, to bring their polls into line with the result of the GE.This means reducing the Libdem score by an average of 3% & raising Lab & cons.<br /> Afew weeks ago we were averaging 21%, now its 18%, hmmm.<br /> Second, no one knows why Libdem votes go down between GEs. One explanation is that most voters simply stop thinking much about politcs & revert their Party "Identification" The existence of the Coalition isnt likely to affect this in the short run. What we are seeing is a sort of Political Inertia.paul barkerhttp://theleadenyears@talktalk.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-64322145112811741972010-06-29T12:09:27.385+01:002010-06-29T12:09:27.385+01:00LibDem 'support' has always been soft afte...LibDem 'support' has always been soft after a certain level. Lots of Labour supporters who sometimes decide to take a road trip. <br /><br />The way to build a bigger base is to be a <b> serious </b> Party, and the way to be a serious Party is to be successfully in Government. <br /><br />Hang tough,never retreat,never allow your Labour enemies to control the narrative, and stay the course until 2015. It's that simple.dougfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01204984674967097629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-89980943340960271872010-06-29T09:58:55.625+01:002010-06-29T09:58:55.625+01:00Keep calm is very sensible, though there is no par...Keep calm is very sensible, though there is no particular <br /><br />1. Margin of error. So could be better; equally, could be worse. No reason at all to see that as more a cause for potential optimism unless you put the downside in too.<br /><br />2. What happens to LibDems after elections. But why? Isn't the normal reason that you slip off the media radar, and then get a boost in the campaign when you don't. Well, being in government, having the deputy PM, you've never been higher profile or more talked about. So 2010 is different to 2005 or 2001.<br /><br />3. Why would the early period of the government be toughest? Most people would assume the opposite. <br /><br />Don't forget the government is broadly popular or at least accepted right now - on the "give a government a chance" principle - and that the budget had broad majority support (because "we have to do something" was enough for those who don't read Guardian reports of IFS analysis to find out that the expert consensus is that the fairness claim was broadly lost). Still, that must matter more to LibDems who don't want the government to flunk its central rationale.<br /><br />That shows up clearly in the polls - in the boost for the Tories, at the expense of the LibDems.<br /><br />Certainly, LibDem expectation management would be steeling the party for doing worse in the Autumn and winter, and creating some plausible narrative about why the party could recover. Why it might yet benefit from a successful Coalition as much/more than the Tories (which these polls cast doubt on) and might not take as big a hit on the Tories when the government does become less popular.Sunder Katwalahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06671411534003530927noreply@blogger.com