tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post7312076216357872344..comments2024-01-23T16:53:02.428+00:00Comments on Mark Thompson: Why the Labour Party could be gone within a generationMark Thompsonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00744387583593537268noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-44773382348684482482011-02-07T22:43:01.588+00:002011-02-07T22:43:01.588+00:00Apart from overstating the effect of equalised con...Apart from overstating the effect of equalised constituents your blog piece is the narrative of the Cameron and Clegg Project.<br /><br />Marginalise Labour !<br /><br />If the Coalition has it sums right cuts wise and the economy blossoms in 2013-2015 then that will be a disaster for Labour which has wedded itself to deficit denial in the voters eyes.Being on the wrong side of the economic debate will knock them out of power for generations !<br /><br />Dark days for the Coalition now but if they get the economics right bright times ahead.<br /><br />Amuses me so many Labour supporters crowing about their position in the polls today reminds me of the Aussies before the 2010 ashes !Richiedawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03203291237599816430noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-55775929546351322952011-02-07T14:54:30.173+00:002011-02-07T14:54:30.173+00:00'Why the Labour Party could be gone within a g...'Why the Labour Party could be gone within a generation'<br /><br />Looks like a gross exaggeration to me. Maybe Labour will not recover in SE England but they still have a solid core vote in Merseyside, Scotland and London as the election demonstrated and are quickly recovering in the northern cities.<br /><br />As for the lib dems, they might remain a force in the south of england but could see their support truly haemorrhage in Wales, the NE etc at the next election.A Brownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-88402714112083553742011-02-06T12:21:22.906+00:002011-02-06T12:21:22.906+00:00Couple of problems.
I think it's easy to over...Couple of problems.<br /><br />I think it's easy to overstate the whole boundary thing. ISTR there was another big set of changes in the mid-90's that was going to keep Labour out of power for a generation. In reality, the net loss of 20-30 seats doesn't wipe a party out, it just resets the median line of British politics a little to the right or left of where it was, say from Gillingham & Rainham to Stroud. So in crude terms, Labour just need to become 2% (or whatever) more right-wing than they were. One can view the Kinnock to Blair transition in that kind of light.<br /><br />I'd dispute the "coalitions are more likely" thing too - the current squeeze on the LD's is making them less likely. I'd agree the sheer binary tribalism of Labour is a weakness, I'm just not sure how important it will prove. You could argue that given the poisoned legacy of Brown, that tribalism kept them out of power in the Parliament that will be blamed for Brown's mistakes for a generation. It was arguably a good election to lose.<br /><br />As has been mentioned, letting party members decide policy is often a bad thing, as the sort of political geeks who inhabit party organisations are the last people you want doing anything for the general public. Many of the LD's daftest, most voter-alienating policies have come from the conference floor. You need to steer a path between letting the activists think that they're in control, and keeping the daft ideas out of the manifesto. The Tories probably get that balance least wrong, and it's no coincidence that they win more elections than the LDs and Labour.<br /><br />Membership does wax and wane. But it's less important than it was. All those LD leaflets stuffed through doors had far less influence on potential LD voters than a single TV debate. I know activism is terribly important to activists, and it can still be important in marginals, but party messages are now more centralised than they ever were.<br /><br />Where membersship matters more to parties is in financing, a matter of particular relevance to Labour, but that's complicated with the relationship with the unions. In the last election you saw a lot of Labour campaigning in effect outsourced to the unions, with media campaigns and phonebanking paid for and organised by the unions. That's a huge resource that the other parties don't have access to, and shouldn't be underestimated. In that context, the Coalition would have done well to have lobbed in some stuff on union funding into the AV bill, Labour would have gladly given way on the other stuff in order to stop the faintest threat to their relationship with the unions.<br /><br />As for the "don't know what they stand for" thing - isn't that a cry we've heard down the ages? What's so different now? During the weariness that comes after a long spell in power, a clean sheet is probably a good thing - and in modern politics, it's probably better, the longer it stays clean, although the Tories took that to extremes last election and are now paying the price for it a bit.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-42947830764577381162011-02-06T02:02:13.699+00:002011-02-06T02:02:13.699+00:00While you raise some important issues your article...<i>While you raise some important issues your article as a whole is total fucking bullshit. If you truly believe it then you are dangerously deluded, more likely you know its bollocks...</i><br /><br />That's what we like! Reasoned debate!<br /><br />And the ability to traduce the author by the use of your Mystic Meg style bleatings! (Because, somehow, you psychically just know that he is a liar.<br /><br />Are you a Labour Party member, by any chance?Mattnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-6484118618871038162011-02-05T10:00:47.776+00:002011-02-05T10:00:47.776+00:00Anon2 - Thank you for your comment saying I raise ...Anon2 - Thank you for your comment saying I raise some interesting issues. That was my intention. As for your comments about the substance being "total fucking bullshit" and that I probably know it's "bollocks" and some sort of diversionary tactic from the Lib Dems own problems, the Lib Dems potential existential fragility has been endlessly pondered on blogs and in the media over the last few months. It is indeed true that the party could be in very serious trouble as I acknowledged at the start of my post. However rather than add yet another piece about the problems of the Lib Dems to the pile (which I will almost certainly do in the future anyway) I thought it would be thought provoking to look at the potential existential troubles of another party that might superficially seem strong at the moment but has some serious underlying weaknesses in my view. The glib responses about current relative poll strengths are essentially irrelevant. I am talking about over the next 20 or so years.<br /><br />Richard Manns -<br /><br />1) The Labour Party has moved on from those days. Its activists are not collectively in the same ideological place as 30 years ago, and what is the point of a political party if it is not defined by the politics of its grass-roots members? You end up with the hollowed out shell that was New Labour.<br /><br />2&3) Indeed, coalitions are not guaranteed but they are looking more and more likely as recent analysis has shown. Even if the Lib Dems tank in the next few years, people like voting for more than just the big two and that is not going to change. Perhaps the Greens or UKIP or other parties will grow and take significant vote share in coming years instead. My point is the days of 98% of voters choosing Red or Blue are long gone whatever else happens.Mark Thompsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00744387583593537268noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-60557129967441031052011-02-05T09:47:54.907+00:002011-02-05T09:47:54.907+00:00witandWisdom, Attlee would'nt have joined labo...witandWisdom, Attlee would'nt have joined labour today if he was 18,Attlee let MI6 spy on Bevan and supproted Gaitrkell's leadership bid in '55,wanting to sack Bevan, A comparison would be with Labour now and Ramsey Mcdonald, some else Attlee supported,<br /><br />People Naturally aspire to trhe Toiry way of life so are naturally to support them Now even though albours support fell by nearly 3million between their first and second landslide, tehy were constantly ahead in the Polls,<br /> the Tories during theri last itme in power were Massively unpopular, Isee the new people who havde Joined Labour in the alst 9 months as Feeling that ED was'nt as left wing as they had hoped and I see those who were Supportive of ALsitair Darlings Proposed cuts feeling embarresed by the view of opposing cuts now for the sake of it,<br /> I see some similarities with those who suffered under the Thatcher years wanting labour back as they see similarities now, and yes I can see that people don't know what Labour is for, the way that they just voted tory tokeep labour out,But then some people just voted Labour in 2001 to keep the toires out too,johnpaulhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03978755044345580501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-55508831037391152322011-02-04T23:40:10.480+00:002011-02-04T23:40:10.480+00:00I have to disagree on several points:
1) Labour o...I have to disagree on several points:<br /><br />1) Labour once allowed its members to vote on policies for their manifesto. The result was "the longest suicide note in history" and the defeat of 1983. Whilst I can see that Labour could do with listening to their grass-roots, that differs from being ruled by them.<br /><br />2) One coalition does not the end of FPTP make. British electoral history is littered with coalitions, it's simply that we haven't had one since the war. So what? It has never stopped FPTP before. Ironically, such coalition periods often mark sea-changes in politics: the inter-war years, for example, marked the rise of Labour, whilst others such as the Irish Parliamentary Party and the Liberal Unionists saw serious realignments. As such, you might be right; if the economy does better than forecast, and Labour careers to the left, interesting things may happen in the gap.<br /><br />3) Why should hung Parliaments become more and more likely? One should be very wary of such sweeping predictions in politics. After all, current polling puts you back to minivan levels of MPs. I don't reckon this will happen, but if the LDs don't think of some strategy to take the soft left vote from Labour, they'll be hammered in 2015.Richard Mannshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13780203714224125693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-33817884192949869952011-02-04T22:26:31.706+00:002011-02-04T22:26:31.706+00:00What a load of rubbish-the conclusion, not the art...What a load of rubbish-the conclusion, not the article-, if any party will disappear it's going to be the lib dems.Ian Silverahttp://www.game-view.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-17174099946524165762011-02-04T22:25:55.018+00:002011-02-04T22:25:55.018+00:00@Mark
While you raise some important issues your ...@Mark<br /><br />While you raise some important issues your article as a whole is total fucking bullshit. If you truly believe it then you are dangerously deluded, more likely you know its bollocks and using this article as a displacement exercise to stop yourself from thinking about the life threatening problems of the libdems.<br /><br />In the medium term, if you guys stick with the tories and Av is lost, the libdems will move further to the right as left leaning supporters and members drifting away. Ending with a pact or merger and the libs being the more socially concerned wing of the tories. In the long term essentially re-creating the duopoly of politics with the slight twist of a tory-liberal party being the centre-right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-64384206228778977892011-02-04T21:52:49.389+00:002011-02-04T21:52:49.389+00:00Very intresting blog Mark - as a "die hard&qu...Very intresting blog Mark - as a "die hard" lifelong Labour voter I am sadly coming to the conclusion that they no longer reflect my views and beliefs and I agree with your commentsmariethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12235041023735234961noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-69349661524551730132011-02-04T16:13:41.414+00:002011-02-04T16:13:41.414+00:00Interesting read. I think the boundary changes wil...Interesting read. I think the boundary changes will have an affect and Labour know it hence their all or bust tactics in the Lords. I would also echo the point about their behaviour in the coalition negotiations. It was quite shocking for me as a left-leaning Lib Dem just how reluctant the Labour negotiators were to give ground during the discussions. That encompassed with the sheer hatred shown by some Labour members (to the point of wishing destruction) towards the Lib Dems, made me realise just how tribal they are. There is very little room for consensus building and some of the petty nonsense that people such as Tom Harris propagate really push this point home.<br />The oppositionist populism they are engaging in at the moment will soon become wearisome for large parts of the electorate.Rusty Liberalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06986159759535203611noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-50398766233150799692011-02-04T16:10:54.861+00:002011-02-04T16:10:54.861+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Rusty Liberalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06986159759535203611noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-34486952280265500962011-02-04T13:21:06.018+00:002011-02-04T13:21:06.018+00:00Anon - Thanks for that. Do you have the polling fi...Anon - Thanks for that. Do you have the polling figures for 4th February 2031 handy?Mark Thompsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00744387583593537268noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-85688383327283220252011-02-04T13:17:52.265+00:002011-02-04T13:17:52.265+00:00Mark, while I agree with your main points I see th...Mark, while I agree with your main points I see their decline taking place over this Parliament, not decades.<br />The historical background is the decline in Membership of the 3 main Parties over the last 60 years.<br />Labour have seen a number of growth spurts in the past interspersed with long periods of decline. The peak in 1997 saw membership hit 415 Thousand only to fall rapidly, by 30 to 40 Thousand a year, slowing over time to level off at 150 Thousand in 2009.<br />Labour hit a new peak at the end of last year, at around 180 Thousand & its reasonable to expect another rapid decline, how rapid is the question.paul barkerhttp://theleadenyears@talktalk.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-30617492623364454412011-02-04T12:56:37.702+00:002011-02-04T12:56:37.702+00:00Cannot see it happening. Far too many people in th...Cannot see it happening. Far too many people in this country are die hard 'will never ever vote Tory/Labour', even when modern parties have shifted all over the political spectrum and, on some very important things, no longer have much connection with oringinal policies.<br /><br />I hope the LDs recover to restore a credible 3rd party(they have deserved some stick, but not as much as they've gotten, especially when both other parties have gone back on promises without even a flimsy excuse in their times), but Labour are here to stay. Not knowing what they stand for, to a higher degree than the others, and the same with tribalism,if true, won't affect that, even if it should.Kieran Enoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-71850545456349357952011-02-04T12:55:25.089+00:002011-02-04T12:55:25.089+00:00A good piece and very pertinent. I agree that the...A good piece and very pertinent. I agree that the Labour Party is no longer recognisable as a Labour Party. Imagine a Nye Bevin or Clement Attlee turning 18 today and looking for a party to join. The last one they would choose would be Labour.<br /><br />For me the death knell for Labour is also a warning for us: they are heavily weighted in favour of private school educated people at the top. This is problematic for us but for a party which pretends to speak for 'ordinary' people its a disaster.<br /><br />And in response to the comment above I'd say that rumours of our demise are often exaggerated and have been circulating for 90 years. We are democratic, we fight for every seat we win, which renews our support, we listen to people and we are happy to work with others - even the hated Tories.wit and wisdomhttp://www.andycrick.org.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-52230637354277164582011-02-04T12:03:27.167+00:002011-02-04T12:03:27.167+00:00Latest poll ratings:
Labour 44%
Lib Dems 8%ancing...Latest poll ratings:<br /><br />Labour 44%<br />Lib Dems 8%ancinglaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3881762807913180318.post-5180738089755467862011-02-04T11:07:28.841+00:002011-02-04T11:07:28.841+00:00"the Labour party does not seem to know what ..."the Labour party does not seem to know what it stands for any more."<br /><br />This seems highly ironic from a Lib Dem. <br /><br />The Lib Dem death will come sooner than Labour's.Jononoreply@blogger.com