The short answer is it's a mixed bag.
The longer answer:
- Labour will win the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election but the Lib Dems will be a close second.
- CORRECT. They did indeed win and Lib Dems did indeed come a fairly close second. Certainly by the standards of later by-elections!
- WRONG. I could not have been more wrong really. We were trounced 68% to 32%. Polls in the months before really did make it look like it would be close but in the end it was not to be.
- CORRECT. Although there are various things she has done I think the "cross hairs" thing and the "Blood libel" comment in the aftermath of the Gabrielle Giffords shooting torpedoed her chances within a couple of weeks of me making the prediction. This Guardian article here from back in January pretty much sums it up.
- WRONG. Not even close. In fact despite lots of problems it looks like the coalition is determined to hold together without this sort of upset.
- WRONG. They deservedly got knocked out in the quarter-finals.
- WRONG AGAIN! I think I might stop predicting this now although it's become a tradition and I might not be able to resist...
- CORRECTAMUNDO! I am extremely pleased with my predictive skills here! He is the only cabinet minister from the start of the year who was not in post by the end. And when I predicted it it was far from likely he would go. Indeed the bookies had him way down the list of likely casualties. To be fair I could not have predicted the nature of his downfall but the reason I chose him is because he has always seemed a little bit too hubristic and I just felt somewhere down the line this would trip him up as indeed it proved.
- WRONG. Way out. There were double that amount. And to be fair, Harry Hayfield called me on the likelihood I had got this wrong in the comments on the original blog post straight away.
- WRONG. There have been several debates in parliament triggered by the new e-petitions site but cannabis legalisation was not one of them. Probably a bit of wishful thinking on my part there!
So 4/10 but the Liam Fox one somewhat redeems me I feel.
2012 predictions coming soon...