So when is the North West Leicestershire by-election?

A report has just been published by the Electoral Commission discussing the administration of the Glasgow North East by-election last year. The report is critical in a number of areas and as Caron Lindsay points out today, the fact that it took almost 5 months to hold the by-election (I made it 143 days) left the constituency without parliamentary representation for far too long.

There is a real risk that this sort of situation could be being allowed to happen with North West Leicestershire too which has been without an MP since the sad and unexpected death of Labour MP David Taylor on Boxing Day.

I expect that Labour are hoping that they can get away with not moving the writ for a by-election there because of the sense that the general election could be called at any time. It is true that it could be but it is also possible that it is still more than 3 months away. The latest it could be is June 3rd. If this parliament was to go this long then North West Leicestershire would have been without an MP for 159 days, even longer than Glasgow North East which has just attracted such criticism. Even if as many expect, Gordon decides to call the election for May 6th that would still be 131 days which is again too long to be without representation.

There are precedents for by-elections being called late in a parliament. Amongst them, one I vividly remember was in 1997. The Conservatives called (and lost) a by-election in Wirral South for 27th February just a few weeks from the general election in May.

It's probably true to say that even Gordon doesn't know when he is going to go yet. He might be currently thinking about May 6th but if events conspire against him he could push it all the way.

As I blogged about at the end of December, the Labour Party reacted with outrage at talk of a by-election very soon after Mr Taylor's death. It is now however nearly two months on from then and I still do not detect any sign that this is going to happen.

I suspect the real reason this is being pushed back and back is that they fear they would lose the by-election and do not want that to derail their campaign in the run up to the general election. But as Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael points out in his reaction to the previously mentioned report:

By-elections should be called for the convenience of the public, and not for the political advantage of the party holding the seat.

I couldn't agree more.

The writ should be moved for North West Leicestershire this week.

The North West Leicestershire by-election should not be delayed

There have been reports today that the Labour Party has reacted with outrage to the discussions that are taking place about the potential timing of a by-election trigerred by the untimely and unexpected death of Leicestershire North West MP David Taylor on Boxing Day. Labour have been quoted as saying that it is "completely inappropriate" to be talking about an election so soon after his death. The source also said "Our thoughts are completely with David's family. So should everybody else's be."

I am very sorry for the loss that Mr Taylor's family have suffered. However I disagree that the by-election should not be being discussed. I am certain that behind the scenes, election strategists from all parties (including Labour) will be mulling over the possibilities.

One thing that cannot be allowed to happen is for the timing of the poll to be pushed back and back until it coincides with a general election in April, May or June next year. This would probably be in the Labour Party's electoral interest (in order to avoid a potentially embarassing by-election loss soon before the general election) but certainly not in the interests of the constituents of Leicestershire North West.

The average time between a parliamentary vacancy arising and the day of the resultant by-election in the current parliament is just over 48 days. Even this is slightly skewed because of the 143 day wait to elect Michael Martin's successor in Glasgow North East (mainly delayed due to the proximity of the summer recess). If that is excluded then the average comes down to 41 days.

There is no reason for this to be any different. The writ should be moved within a few weeks of the New Year.