Coalition survival sweepstake

I had a bet with someone yesterday about how long the coalition government will last. They were convinced that it would not go beyond the end of May 2011. I on the other hand expect it to go the full distance and to end on 7th May 2015 as the government has indicated.

It made me think however that it might be fun to have a sweepstake type thing (albeit you don't need to pay any money in). Just pop the date upon which you think the coalition government will end in the comments below, along with your reason(s) why it will not last beyond that date. The winner will be the one who gets closest to the actual date. They will be lauded as predicting King/Queen of the internets and I will also provide a prize.

Because the date the government has already stipulated is 7th May 2015, you are not allowed to pick it and if it does go the full distance then this sweepstake is off. It is only for dates that fall outside the official timetable.

You should also note that there does not need to be a general election for the government to end. It is possible that the Queen will not grant a dissolution in the event of government collapse. We are just looking for the date that this particular government in its current form (i.e. combination of Conservatives and Lib Dems) ceases to be. If the PM and/or Deputy PM change but remain from the current parties (Tory for PM, LD for DPM) then this will not be considered the end of the coalition.

I will close the comments after a week as I do not want "predictions" popping in there in a year or two's time perhaps when it has become obvious that things have changed quite radically!

Good luck.