Thoughts on politics and life from a liberal perspective

Monday, 15 December 2008

Early Election?

Various political blogs are debating the likelihood of Gordon Brown going to the country very soon. There is apparently a rumour that advertising space is being booked (although latterly that is being denied by the company Iain Dale has claimed leaked the info to him).

Anyway, I would be very surprised if Gordon Brown went to the country any time soon. Labour was about 8 points ahead in September 2007 and he didn't go then. If I remember correctly, there was some polling done in marginal constituencies which showed Labour would struggle to gain a decent majority and that was enough to persuade Brown to call it off. Labour are now anywhere from 1 to 5 points behind and whilst the biased electoral system would still give them a chance of a majority (or at least being the largest single party) I just can't see him going for it nearly 18 months before he has to.

I have learned as well over the years that just because I might want it to happen (I love general election campaigns) does not mean it will.

I reckon he will go long and not call it until he virtually has to around May 2010.

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