Thoughts on politics and life from a liberal perspective

Friday, 31 December 2010

My Predictions for 2011

Here are my predictions for the coming year:

  1. Labour will win the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election but the Lib Dems will be a close second.
  2. All 3 main party leaders (Cameron, Clegg and Miliband_E) will still be in post by the end of the year.
  3. The AV referendum will be (narrowly) won.
  4. Sarah Palin will do something that will effectively end her chances of being a serious candidate for the 2012 US presidential election.
  5. A Lib Dem MP will resign the party whip to either sit as an independent or join another party.
  6. England will win the Rugby World Cup.
  7. For the third year running I predict that Eddie Mair will become the new host of BBC Question Time.
  8. Liam Fox will no longer be a cabinet minister by the end of the year.
  9. Including Old and Sad there will be 3 by-elections during the year.
  10. A petition signed by more than 100,000 people will trigger a debate in parliament about legalising cannabis.

Happy New Year!


Harry Hayfield said...

Oldham East (January 13th)
Belfast West (probably March)
and then only one other by-election during the whole year? That's a little unlikely I think. Even during the mass change of Election 1997, there were 14 by-elections in the parliament.

Ollie Cromwell said...

My response.

Anonymous said...

How has the BBC convinced so many over there that Sarah Palin has any chance of being a serious candidate? What could she really do to end her chances that she has not already done? She has her partisans that Republican candidates may try to court, thus she has real influence. She is not a contender today, though all the population of Britain may think so. She said that the 80% of the electorate living on the coasts weren't real Americans. That is not the language of a coalition builder. Michael Palin has a better chance of being a serious candidate for President in 2012.

Oranjepan said...

I know you like him but I'll repeat my argument that Eddie Mair is more suited to radio.

Now if he had the tele-visual appeal of a beer-less, pizza-less and cocaine-less Richard Bacon (who chaired the young persons QT) then I think the Beeb would have the ideal replacement.

As it is the search is still on. Nicky Campbell might be popular in some quarters, or what about a female candidate?

Unrelatedly, Sarah Palin? She doesn't need to do anything, the end of Arnie's term as Governor of California has already terminated her chances. He's been prevented from overtly positioning himself til today, but no longer.

Mark Thompson said...

Oranjepan - Schwartzenegger was born in Austria so without a change in the US Constitutional requirement for US Presidential (and Vice Presidential) candidates to have been born on US soil there is zero chance he will be standing.

And given all the noise that the "birthers" have made about Obama's supposedly dodgy US birth credentials (which are actually rock solid) I cannot see that happening any time soon as US birth is clearly of immense importance to many on the right of US politics.

Anonymous said...

Same Anon as above.

Hate to be pedantic and all, but you don't actually need to be born "on US soil" to run for president, you need to be a natural born citizen. McCain was born in the Panama Canal zone and qualifies because of his parents citizenship. There were and are people asserting that he is unqualified, but we hear less from them since Obama won. But it is not uniquely of importance to the right, so much as it is a feature of polar politics that the extreme wings of one side castigate the leader of the opposition as a Manchurian Candidate.

Oranjepan said...

It's not my area of specialism by any means, but was the Hatch Amendment unsuccessful already?