Thoughts on politics and life from a liberal perspective

Saturday, 15 February 2014

Tory minister claims he does not understand inflation regarding flood defence spending

I was listening to BBC Radio 4's Any Questions earlier on and I could barely believe my ears.

Tory minister George Eustice was talking about the difference in spending on flood defences between 2010-14 (under the coalition) and 2006-10 (under Labour). The figures are £2.4bn for 2010-14 and £2.2bn for 2006-10. He thus said that in cash terms spending has increased.

Jonathan Dimbleby the host then challenged Eustice on this asking him about what this meant when inflation was taken into account though, and pointed out that it was actually a cut in real terms. Eustice then claimed that he did not know what "real terms" meant and reiterated that spending had increased on flood defences.

This very much reminded me of the famous Upton Sinclair quote:

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it."

It is risible for a government minister to claim he does not understand the difference between real terms increases and cash increases.

The fact ministers are now resorting to this sort of mendacity shows how desperate they are to keep control of the political narrative on floods.

Delingpole is as hidebound as the "Climate Bullies" he so eloquently rails against

There was an interesting change in media-land this week that may well have been missed by many people. Arch anthropogenic climate change sceptic James Delingpole announced that he would no longer be blogging for the Telegraph. He didn't mention so in his swansong piece but he is actually moving to Breibart.com, a muck-raking right wing site that is imminently launching in the UK.

I stopped regularly reading Delingpole about a year ago. There is no doubt he is an excellent writer but the tone of his pieces and the ad hominem attacks on any and all who think there might just be something to this man-made climate change mallarkey was ultimately a turn off for me. I don't mind a bit of baiting (and indeed have done it myself on occasion) but his pieces became about 80% bile and 20% (often poorly backed) substance.

I have been reflecting on the position of people like Delingpole in the last couple of weeks. We have seen horrendous weather here in the UK and flooding on a scale unprecedented in modern times. The sort of extreme weather we are experiencing both here and globally in the last few years certainly seems to my untrained eye remarkable. And indeed plenty in the scientific community think it is no coincidence weather is becoming more extreme.

But of course with a system as complex as global weather patterns it is very, very difficult to be sure about anything. Just because 97% of scientists working in the field think that anthropogenic climate change is real and happening doesn't mean it is definitely true. For my part I think it highly unlikely they are wrong to any significant degree and am willing to go with the vast majority of the best science there is out there. But through the gaps in scientific knowledge and understanding there is space for the climate sceptics such as the erstwhile Telegraph blogger.

Delingpole essentially considers there to be a conspiracy of people who have a vested interest in pushing the agenda of climate change. Some of the conspirators are in it for the money, some are in it for political power and some simply want to impose socialist solutions on the rest of us by scaring the bejeesus out of us. And the rest of us are the "sheeple" who lap this stuff up despite freedom fighters like Mr D and others trying to show us the One True Way. If you think I am being hyperbolic just read a few of his pieces on this subject.

The curious thing is that James Delingpole is as hidebound as any of the supposed conspirators he so eloquently rails against. He has made his name as an arch climate sceptic, indeed he won a prestigious award for his pieces on the "Climategate Scandal*" in 2009. He has also written a book entitled "How Environmentalists are Killing the Planet, Destroying the Economy and Stealing your Children's Future". I am sure that a big part of his move to this new site is because of his work and reputation in this area. In other words his career depends on him continuing to write sceptically and vociferously about this supposed climate change conspiracy.

So it is highly unlikely that what has happened in the last 2 weeks will have moved him. He literally cannot allow it to and that would apply no matter how strong the evidence was. In other words James Delingpole is the very definition of an unreliable witness regarding this subject. He has too much riding on it. He will pick and choose "evidence" to suit his cause and will continue to attack those in the scientific and wider community who think the (increasingly strong) evidence points in the opposite direction to his cause.

For regular readers of my blog it would be like the equivalent of there suddenly being very strong evidence that the war on drugs is actually working. How would I react to such evidence? After all a fair bit of my (much smaller) reputation has been built up as a strong advocate of reform. I'd like to think that I'd go with the evidence but I'd find it very difficult to reconcile myself after all the time and effort I have put into the campaigning for reform. I expect what I would be tempted to do is cherry pick my evidence to highlight what backed up my case. It's only human nature. I'd have painted myself into a corner.

This is exactly what Delingpole has done. He has painted himself into an intellectual corner on this issue and simply cannot brook any change no matter what the evidence says. He would now look ridiculous if he started to repudiate what he had previously written in such strong terms.

I fear his move to Breibart underlines this point. Until now he has written for the Telegraph which although right-leaning has been a broad church on this issue. Delingpole was an important writer for them but they equally have writers such as Geoffrey Lean and Tom Chivers who will strongly argue the opposite case on climate change. At his new home it is unlikely that his platform will be usurped by others in this way. He will be amongst like-minded souls. In other words he has gone down a cul-de-sac and will largely be preaching to the converted.

Maybe that's how he wants it now. Nobody likes to be told they're wrong and a lot of commenters on his Telegraph blog would take him to task. In his farewell post he referred to them as "Trolls" but for some mainstream commentators this word has mutated into "people who disagree with me". At least there will be fewer of them where he is going.

I don't wish Mr Delingpole any ill and I hope he is happy in his new role. I can't help but feel though that he has now crossed the rubicon into a right-wing climate sceptic echo chamber which will only serve to bolster his conviction that he is right and the vast majority of the rest of the world is wrong.


*The "Climategate Scandal" has been debunked many times and the smoking "hide the decline" quote has also been explained many times. For a synopsis of what was going on this is a good article.

Thursday, 13 February 2014

My (sort of) ideal election result

Now I'm no longer constrained by having to fight for every vote the Lib Dems can get I thought I would have a bit of fun with a hypothetical election result.

My sort of ideal result* in 2015 would look like this:

Conservatives: 35%
Labour: 32.5%
Lib Dem: 12%
UKIP: 13%

Now before you all accuse me of going mad, allow me to explain.

One of my overriding ambitions in politics is to get electoral reform for Westminster. And a result like above would damn the current system in two different ways. Here is what the Electoral Calculus seat calculator predicts from the above national result:

Conservatives: 295 seats
Labour: 302 seats
Lib Dems: 25 seats
UKIP: 0 seats

Labour 24 seats short of an overall majority.

So despite the fact that the Tories would have got 2.5% more of the vote than Labour they would have 7 fewer seats than them and even with the Lib Dems would be unable to form a majority. This would massively highlight the iniquities of the current system. It would be very amusing to see how excruciating this would be for the Conservatives who are so viscerally opposed to any change in the electoral system being hoist by their own petard in this way. Also knowing that the elevated UKIP vote would certainly have split the vote more on the right than the left and also knowing that if AV had won (that the Tories did the most to ensure failed) would also have saved their skin.

The other major point and the reason why I wanted UKIP to poll higher than the Lib Dems is because immediately we see that despite getting 13% of the vote, UKIP get no seats whereas the Lib Dems on 12% get 25 seats. This is of course utterly preposterous and would again be evident for all to see.

One of the problems in trying to persuade people of the merits of electoral reform is that it is difficult to talk in terms of theory. People need to see concrete evidence of what we are talking about and to actually feel the democratic deficit of FPTP in action. Even then I am not convinced that a one off election result like this would be enough in and of itself to provoke a big enough backlash to trigger a change in the system.

But it would be a good and very entertaining start.


*If we can't get the weird quirks we see here then I would rather the Lib Dems did better than 12% as I think they deserve to. As it happens though what I have predicted here is not beyond the bounds of possibility if the economy continues to recover and UKIP maintain their polling levels and manage to get in on the pre-election leaders debate.

House of Comments - Episode 97 - Ever closer union?

Episode 97 of the House of Comments podcast "Ever closer union?" is out. This week what can and should be done about flooding? Would the Tories be happy to see Scotland go? And just what is their problem with women? Emma is joined by Mark Wallace of Conservative Home and Hopi Sen.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Tuesday, 4 February 2014

White Dee is so much better at being a human than Katie Hopkins

The Future of Empathy?
I know I'm feeding the troll but my God Katie Hopkins is horrendous.

She was one of the main panellists on last night's "Big Benefits Row" on Channel 5. I wasn't going to watch it, really I wasn't. But a bit like Owen Jones (who reluctantly agreed to be one of the other guests having initially indicated that he would not go on) in the end I couldn't resist.

Hopkins is like a parody of a pantomime political villain. She started off by spouting a load of right wing cliches such as how there are 1 million disability benefit claimants who have been struck off (completely ignoring how many of those have since successfully appealed of course). She spent much of her time shouting at the audience about how they need to "GET A JOB" and other such delightful sound bites. She also took every opportunity she could to have personal pops at her opponents such as her claim that Annabel Giles was a "failed model". Giles was actually a very successful model so her slur didn't even make any sense.

But the producers booked her and others will keep booking her because she "challenges people". The fact that she completely derails everything she is on and acts like a caricature of a totally uncaring right-wing boor spraying ad hominem attacks left right and centre appears to be neither here nor there.

Contrast her behaviour with that of White Dee (Deirdre Kelly), one of the residents of James Turner Street in Birmingham and a star of Channel 4's Benefits Street. She had never appeared on live television before and a few weeks ago was a single mother of two living in complete obscurity. Dee was politely spoken, articulate and did an excellent job of speaking up for those in our country less fortunate than the majority who have good health and jobs. She came across as intelligent, self deprecating and multi-layered explaining that some of what she was being criticised for on Benefits Street was being taken out of context and that sometimes she was being sarcastic. This point actually seemed to throw Hopkins who defensively claimed she "has a sense of humour".

But more than that, having watched the first episode of Benefits Street Dee comes across as an incredibly warm person. She helps out her friends and neighbours, filling out forms for the ones who are unable to read or write, making phone calls on their behalf and generally being there for them. She even acts almost like a counsellor or sponsor for one of her friends who is struggling with substance addiction, persuading him to let her be in charge of his money and only giving it back to him in small amounts to try and interrupt his cycle of buying alcohol and drugs and upbraiding him when she sees him with alcohol. In short she is exactly the sort of person that is rightly looked up to in communities.

Yes she is on benefits and yes she does not have a job. But that does not make her evil.

And if I had to make a choice between having one of these two people as my friend, the TV "personality" who spends her entire time in the verbal gutter insulting and trolling or the softly spoken and evidently very caring White Dee I know which one I would choose in a heartbeat.

Sunday, 2 February 2014

5 things I learned as an activist for a political party

I left the Lib Dems last year after having been a member and activist for just over 5 years. I learned a lot during that time and I think much of it would apply to other parties too.

Such as


1) It costs money

And I don't just means the party membership fees. There are raffles, fund raising events, dinners etc. all of which seek to raise funds for the local party. My local party did not have many active members so the burden for all of this fell disproportionately on those of us who were active. I know there was one member in particular, a stalwart of the party who donated significant amounts of their own money to help keep things going.

But there's more. I stood as a candidate in a council by-election in 2010 and that cost money too in petrol travelling back and forth all over the ward over several weeks as well as on other unexpected things such as buying special chemical hand warmers to stop my hands from seizing up knocking on so many doors!

I'm not saying it cost a huge amount of money but I have a decent job and my own car. For those without those advantages I imagine it would be even harder.

And what's really irritating about this is that...


2) Lots of people seem to think everyone involved in politics is doing it for the money

In the aforementioned by-election one of the things I heard time and again on the doorstep was that politicians are all on the make. As this was being directed at me as a "representative of politics" I felt duty-bound to rebut this claim. I'm not sure how successful it was because as I was trying to get elected to the borough council there seemed to be a residual suspicion that it was in order to get the money. It certainly was not why I was doing it. For a start I knew I had virtually no chance of winning as this is a safe Tory area. But what it did was make me sympathise very much with those activists, especially for the smaller parties who slog their guts out for years and in some cases decades with very little prospect of winning seats. I did it for a relatively short period and it increased my respect for all activists.


3) It's like being a part of a large extended family

Going to party conference (and I think I ended up going to about 7 of them in total in my 5 years) was a very nice experience. There are lots of friendly faces and you know that if you strike up a conversation with someone in a fringe meeting or around the venue you are likely (although not guaranteed!) to share some core political values. As time went on and I got to know more and more people in the party there would come a point when simply wandering around for 5 minutes I would bump into people I knew and often go for a drink or a bite to eat in a completely impromptu way.

Having spent the first 34 years of my life as not a member of any party this was a new and welcome experience. It is the thing I am probably going to miss the most now I am no longer a member.


4) It's pretty damn hard to get on the approved candidate's list for parliament

So having been obsessed with politics since I was about 16 years old and having fairly quickly established myself as a successful political blogger (winning the Best New Lib Dem Blog of the Year in September 2009) I perhaps somewhat arrogantly thought I had what it took to get on the approved list and have a tilt at being a candidate for parliament somewhere (unwinnable) in 2010.

So I applied to go for the half day assessment at Cowley Street and dutifully toddled along expecting that my many years of watching BBC Question Time and reading political opinion pieces would stand me in very good stead.

I could not really have been more wrong.

To be fair to myself I was pretty good at the media task but given I was being asked to respond to the previous week's pre-budget statement by Alistair Darling and I had actually been on Sky News two days before doing exactly that it would have been pretty surprising if I had not been good at it. Of course media skills are an important part of what a candidate needs to be able to do but frankly much more important, certainly in getting elected are the other tasks that I was set such as an "in tray exercise" where you have to decide how to respond to a number of different scenarios as a candidate or a group exercise where I had to role-play within a team (involving some of the other candidates) as if I was on a council committee. Not to mention the "policy and values in action" exam where I had to interpret party policy through the prism of my experience and explain how I would put it into action.

I was pretty bad at these tasks but particularly in the in-tray exercise. I had a very long debriefing with the chap who oversaw the whole process after I failed to get onto the approved list and it was clear that most of my answers were simply plain wrong. In my (partial) defence I had never been in a council meeting or had to deal with any of the scenarios as a candidate so I simply applied my world experience from running my own company etc. It's pretty clear there are a specific set of skills that have to be learned.

And on a final personal note it was also clear to me that...


5) It is very unlikely I would ever have achieved elected office in any capacity

For a couple of reasons.

Firstly I am interested in national politics. When I stood in the by-election I did enjoy talking to people when I was canvassing but only really when it strayed into national issues which as a council candidate I probably should have been steering away from to talk about speed-bumps and dog mess. Which frankly do not really float my boat. And in order to make any headway in getting to a position where I could have had a shot at anything at a national level I'd have had to spend years doing the local stuff, trying to get elected and learning the ropes of everything I had got so wrong during the candidate vetting session.

Secondly I simply do not have the patience to spend thousands of hours of my time doing all of that work over years and years. I have a huge amount of respect for the people who can and do do this but I am now certain I am not one of them. I have a wife, a job, business interests, friends and family (spread all over the country) and various hobbies. There is just not space personally for me to do all of the things that would have been necessary to make headway in the world of elected politics.



As I said in my piece when I left the Lib Dems I am still passionately interested in politics but I have other priorities in my life at the moment and am happy outside of a party. That may change in the future and I may join the fray again some day but it is very likely to be a smaller party or campaigning group and my focus would be on the issues that matter most to me.

I learned a lot in my 5 and bit years as a Lib Dem and for anyone interested in politics I would definitely advise them to join a party and see how you get on. You may well find it suits you better than I ultimately did.

Friday, 31 January 2014

House of Comments - Episode 95 - Protest Movements and Protest Parties

Episode 95 of the House of Comments podcast "Protest Movements and Protest Parties" is out. This week Nick Denys speaks to Christian May about the Ukrainian protests and Donna Edmunds, editor of Ukip Daily, about the political news and Ukip’s growing pains. Subjects covered include, raising the upper tax limit to 50p, Ukip’s appeal, Syrian refugees, and the treatment of women in politics.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Monday, 20 January 2014

House of Comments - Episode 94 - Cash4Fracking

Episode 94 of the House of Comments podcast "Cash4Fracking" is out. I am joined by Labour activist and council candidate Claire Spencer and Ruth Porter of the centre-right think tank Policy Exchange to discuss Ed Miliband's banking reforms, Osborne's £7 minimum wage intervention, cash incentives to councils for fracking and the continuing fallout from the Lord Rennard case.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Friday, 17 January 2014

An Ode to Ed

Sit back now whilst I tell you of the tale of an MP
Who used to be in power now he’s oppositionally
Opposed to almost everything the coalition does
He doesn’t like the “Bedroom Tax” or health reforms because
He thinks they hit the poorest ones in our society
And that this will provoke some unneeded anxiety
Most though it’s the “cost of living crisis” that offends him
When interviewers ask something he always always bends them
Round until the answer fits in with his preconceived
Ideas about the crisis and what Labour can achieve
But lately indications are his economic tactic
Could end up being seen as something rather unclimactic
Inflation falling isn’t what he wants at least until
His Number Ten ambition has been properly fulfilled
And as for Obsorne’s stunt about the seven quid min wage
Well that’s the thing that put him in a monumental rage
It runs the risk of landing his key plank upon the rocks
For now he knows the Chancellor has shot his “crisis” fox
The moral of this tale is if you wish to importune
Make sure your arguments are not a hostage to fortune




*I realise that technically this isn't quite an ode
I'm hoping you'll forgive me as I didn't think it showed

Wednesday, 8 January 2014

House of Comments - Episode 92 - Down in the Flood

Episode 92 of the House of Comments podcast "Down in the Flood" is out. Emma myself and our new third co-host Nick Denys discuss the newly released revelations about the miners' strike, the debate around Romanian and Bulgarian immigration, the recent floods and the politics of the Environment Agency and flood defences funding, the latest Lord Ashcroft "Mega Poll" and they make their political predictions for the coming year.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Monday, 6 January 2014

Harry Mount's casual inexactitude

In a piece today on his Telegraph Blog, Harry Mount made this casual assertion in the context of the Queen being a sound constitutional bulwark:

"...there's a steady source of alternative power when normal political life breaks down – as at the last election, when Gordon Brown, the hermit of Downing Street, desperately tried to cling on even though he'd lost the election."
That comment is about as far from the truth as it is possible to get. All the accounts I have read of those few days of negotiations back in 2010 (and that is a lot) show that he played his constitutional role correctly and as soon as it was clear the game was up, Brown wanted to go. If anything the opposite of what Mount says is true. Cameron and Clegg actually wanted more time to cement their deal but Brown had had enough and went to the Palace to resign. Clegg is on record as trying to dissuade him from resigning so quickly in their final phone call.

Lord knows there's enough to attack Brown for. There's simply no need to make stuff up Harry.

Sunday, 5 January 2014

Chuka Umunna's tribalistic attack on tribalism

The antidote to highly partisan politics?
When I hear the term "tribalism" one of the first names that generally pops into my head is the Shadow Business Secretary, Labour's Chuka Umunna. He's usually ready with a pre-prepared attack on the government or the Tories or the Lib Dems separately and is never afraid to be partial, often leaving out crucial information that would highlight problems or hypocrisy in his own party.

Fair enough you may think. He is after all a front-bencher and an aspiring future leader of his party.

But hold on a minute. Chuka has just penned a piece for The Guardian claiming that people are "turned off by tribal politics" and that "this has to change".

Shall we see how he got on suppressing his own tribal instincts?

Asked for the word best describing "how or what you instinctively feel" about politics and politicians, 47% of respondents answered "angry", against 25% who said "bored" in the Guardian/ICM poll on voter apathy last month. I've never bought the argument that people are apathetic about politics. Take Tulse Hill, the most deprived ward in my south London constituency, Streatham. At the 2010 general election, there were turnouts of more than 70% in some polling districts there. Because local elections and the general election took place on the same day, some constituents in the ward had to wait over half an hour to vote, but wait they did.
Fair point. This also happened in other constituencies and there was an outcry (largely forgotten now) on polling day as some people were turned away. He's right to address this. An auspicious start.

Since then, from the protests over the tripling of tuition fees in the autumn of 2010, through to the "March for the Alternative" in 2011 – which attracted hundreds of thousands of people from all walks of life – we have witnessed political engagement on a scale not seen for years. However, increasingly, people find party politics a turnoff. When they hear us in the House of Commons or on the TV, they increasingly reach for the remote. Party politics is in crisis.
This is less promising. There is nothing incorrect in what he says here but it is very, very partial. Yes there have been protests against coalition government policy but I would question his assertion that "we have witnessed political engagement on a scale not seen for years". It depends how many years and I am guessing Chuka is cutting it off at 10. Because if we go back 11 years to 2003 when the Labour government was at its most powerful we saw the largest street protests in this country's history against the Iraq War. And the idea that it is only since May 2010 that people have been turned off by party politics and the behaviour of MPs in the House of Commons is laughable. This has been going on and getting progressively worse for decades.

The reasons for this disconnect between party politics and those in whose name politics plays out are varied. The ridiculously adversarial way in which debate is sometimes conducted is a primary contributor, in my view. To contest ideas on what is best for our country is essential in a healthy democracy. But, in an age when people are less tribal and do not identify with political parties as strongly as they once did, those we represent are thoroughly fed up with the tribal, yah-boo nature of so much of what passes for political debate. Save for a welcome renaissance in our select committees, parliament's culture of political combat has changed little since the past century, while the world outside has changed. We urgently need to move with the times, too.
Agreed.

Though I am probably guilty of indulging in excessive tribalism myself at times, I try to put partisanship to one side where appropriate. Lord Heseltine is a Conservative peer – but that hasn't stopped me publicly praising his pursuit of industrial activism over the decades. I acknowledge when my Liberal Democrat opposite number, Vince Cable, does the right thing (it was he who rightly insisted that an Independent Commission on Banking be established), as well as point out when he and his colleagues get things wrong (dismantling the regional development agencies, for example).
This is more like it. Although the only Tory he is willing to praise has long since left front-line politics of course.

For businesses, this is particularly important: they are as interested in the areas where we agree as in those where we disagree, because consensus reduces risk and gives them confidence to invest for the long term, safe in the knowledge that not all the goalposts will move if the government changes. Many in businesses have told me that short-term political considerations risk standing in the way of the long-term investment. So, as Ed Balls has said, it is for this reason that we would, if elected, set up an independent infrastructure commission to end dither and delay, and to build cross-party consensus on big infrastructure projects that are, by their nature, multiple-parliament endeavours.
It is far from just Ed Balls who has tried to do this of course. For example the government is trying to get cross-party support for HS2 and Labour has been unwilling to commit to this for the long term. This may be fair enough if they genuinely have a problem with it, but it was their project in the first place and is a classic example of the problem Chuka is referring to. No mention of it though, just praise for Ed Balls.

Also, in a world that is less deferential, people resent policies being imposed on them from Westminster – communities want to be empowered to do things for themselves. We made a good start in office with devolution in London, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, with regional development agencies across England, to push power down and out. This is an unfinished project.
To read this you'd think that the only party that has devolved power is Labour. What about Police Commissioners? Labour opposed them. What about the attempt to devolve power within the NHS and for schools? Again Labour opposes these changes. He's trying to have his cake and eat it.

But it is not only our political culture and institutions that must adapt. No party that claims to want to reconnect politics with people can expect to be taken seriously if it is not prepared to take a long, hard look in the mirror and accept that it must change, too. This is ultimately what Ed Miliband's proposed reforms of the Labour party are about.
Just Labour. No mention of what other parties have done.

Political parties – which too often operate like closed circles – must open up. It is why Ed is absolutely right to propose that Labour picks its next London mayoral candidate by way of a primary, in which any Londoner would be eligible to vote, provided that they register as a supporter of the Labour party. The French Socialists picked up their presidential candidate this way in October 2011 – more than 2.8 million French citizens took part, paying €1 or more, raising crucial funds, increasing supporter activism and without compromising the standing of their party members.
No mention of the open primaries and many open caucuses that the Conservative Party had before the 2010 election. Just praise for Ed Miliband for something that hasn't even happened yet rather than reaching out to praise something another party has already done to directly address what he is asking for.

Rebuilding party membership is vital. The Conservative party's membership has reportedly halved under David Cameron to 134,000. Labour's membership has increased substantially since 2010 to around 190,000, but the long-term trend has been in the other direction. That's why Ed is determined we become a mass movement once again.
Every party loses members in office as they have to take "tough decisions". So highlighting what has happened to the Conservative Party in office and contrasting with Labour in opposition is just tribalistic posturing. He gives an oblique nod to the long term trend but puts no figures on it so we can judge or contrast. I'll provide them though. Labour had over 400,000 members in 1997 so in the last 17 years its membership has more than halved. In fact more accurately it had halved by 2004 in only 7 years. Since then it went down further and has bounced back up a bit but is now still less than 200,000.

Developing a more meaningful relationship with the 3 million working men and women who are members of the trade unions that sit inside the Labour family will give our party a head start in addressing this. It will open up our party and give working people a real choice and voice as individuals inside Labour. What Ed's package of party reforms will do is to update a party architecture constructed in the 20th century to make it fit for the 21st, better embedding our party in every community.
I have happily given Ed Miliband credit for his decision to do this. But again there is no mention of any of the measures any of the other parties have taken or attempted to do to address the democratic deficit in this country.

There is no mention of the AV referendum (which so many in his own party opposed), a change which would likely have reduced tribalism by encouraging candidates to reach out across party divides to try and get second and third preferences. No mention of how his own leader manouvered to stymie the reforms to the House of Lords which were trying to ensure it was largely elected. No mention of how so many of his own party's MPs are increasing drawn from a very narrow demographic. No mention of how the Labour leadership succession in 2007 was stitched up for Gordon Brown without even allowing the party members a meaningful choice (with the two Eds in the thick of this as Brown's two closest advisers). No mention of the many, many meetings that David Cameron and Nick Clegg have had in local meeting halls over the years to help reconnect with voters and revive this tradition. No mention of how so many in his own party (including him) have attacked coalition compromises precisely because they are compromises (as if coalition could ever have been anything else), pursuing a "betrayal" narrative thus undermining the whole notion of the very consensual politics he claims to want to see more of.

I could go on.

Much more besides what I've described needs to happen if we are to reconnect people to political parties. Why does it matter? Why not let the main parties wither? Because I know of no better vehicle than the political party to enable those with common values to come together and reach a position on issues that can then be offered up as a choice of programmes for voters. If we are to remain relevant and do this more effectively, reform is not an option, it is a necessity.
I agree. It's just that Labour's is not the only way to do it. Not that you'd realise this from this highly partial and partisan piece.

Chuka Umunna has managed the remarkable feat here of writing a piece that supposedly rails against tribalism whilst simultaneously being highly tribalistic.

If it wasn't so depressing I'd almost be impressed.

Wednesday, 1 January 2014

How did I do on my 2013 predictions? (Spoiler alert: Badly)

  1. Bruce Forsyth will retire and hence will not be a main host on Strictly Come Dancing 2013 (although he may pop in to say hello). Sort of half a point here really. He had several episodes off and I can't imagine it's too long before he properly leaves.
  2. Despite rumours of a potential replacement, Ed Balls will still be Shadow Chancellor come the end of the year. Ding
  3. Chris Huhne will return to the cabinet. Very much un-ding.
  4. Someone with a blog on the Lib Dem Blogs aggregator who has never been a parliamentarian will be enobled. As far as I know this has not happened although I am happy to be corrected if I missed someone*.
  5. The government will announce a timetable for the abolition of 1p and 2p coins. Nope
  6. David Cameron will announce an in/out referendum on Europe to take place if the Conservatives win the next election. Ding
  7. The Universal Credit will be delayed and eventually abandoned (this bit may happen next year) due to too many technical problems. IDS will resign when this finally happens. I'm claiming this one. It is clear that the project has failed it's just taking a very long time to put it out of its misery and they're managing it in such a way as IDS can save face and not resign.
  8. We will manage to get a government minister on as a guest on the House of Comments Podcast. Didn't manage this although a couple of them were approached. Maybe this year.
  9. One of either Mark Pack or Stephen Tall from off of Lib Dem Voice will appear on BBC's Question Time. This sadly did not happen. It's surely only a matter of time though as they are both strong media performers. Although I would suggest in the run up to the Scottish independence referendum they should get Caron Lindsay on.
  10. For four years now I have predicted that Eddie Mair will become the main presenter of Question Time. But as Dimbleby_D still shows no signs of going anywhere any time soon I'm going to change this one. Mr Mair showed his mettle as a stand-in presenter on Newsnight during the Savile crisis so I now predict he will become a regular presenter on Newsnight when it is revamped this year. This did not happen but Paxman seems to me to be in the ante room now so Mair is probably in prime position to take over this year.
  11. All around my hat I will wear the green willow, and all around my hat for a twelve month and a day. As we are still less than a twelve month (and a day) since I made this prediction I cannot yet reveal whether I managed it.

So 3.5 (and that's being generous to myself) out of 10. I'll just have to hope I do better with my 2014 predictions which I will post soon.


*UPDATE: Turns out I was actually right. Olly Grender was enobled in 2013 and her New Statesman blog was on the aggregator. So I got 4.5 out of 10! Thanks to Stephen Tall and Ryan Cullen for spotting and confirming this respectively.

Sunday, 22 December 2013

Debunking the "Gambling away £100 every 20 seconds" myth

"At the moment, a punter can walk into a high street bookmakers and gamble away £100 every 20 seconds for 13 hours."
Tom Watson - HuffPostUK - Oct 2013

I'm highlighting this claim about Fixed Odds Betting Terminals in particular because it is so mathematically wrong-headed. Also because the "gambling away £100 every 20 seconds" and "gambling away £18,000 per hour" narratives are now forming a core part of the campaign against FOBTs. I may come back to the political and moral arguments on this subject in a later post. But for now I just want to focus on the maths.

FOBTs, which are most commonly roulette have a house edge of between 2.7% and around 5%. This is in line with the standard odds yielded by a roulette table. If a table has a single zero then the odds of winning on a red or black bet are just less than 50/50 (because if it comes up zero the house wins). So with 36 numbers plus zero the chances of winning in a single spin are 18/37 or 0.486. This yields a house edge of just over 2.7%. If the roulette table has two zeroes (a zero and a double zero) then the odds are titled more in the house's favour as it becomes 18/38 or 0.474 yielding a house edge of 5.26%.

So as probability theory tells us, over the long term we would expect a punter on the first type of table to be about 2.7% down and a punter on the second type of table to be 5.26% down. For the rest of this piece I am going to focus on the second type of table as I wanted to pick the worst case scenario for this to be generous.

If someone was foolhardy enough to bet £100 on a red or black bet every 20 seconds for an hour on this sort of table they would be incredibly unlikely to lose (or "gamble away" to use Watson's term) £18,000. In fact we can calculate just how unlikely this is. We simply take the chance of them losing each time and multiply this number by itself the number of times they are going to play. From this we can see that the chance of this happening is (1-(18/38))^180

Which is one in 149,847,041,024,310,787,847,729,246,045,620,000,000,000,000,000,000*

Or to put it another way roughly the same likelihood as picking two random molecules of water from all the oceans of the world and them being the same one. In other words pretty much as close to impossible as you can theoretically get.

In actual fact someone who gambled £100 every 20 seconds for an hour would not have "gambled away £18,000". They would, on average gamble away 5.26% of £18,000 or £946.80. Now I'm not trying to claim this is not a large amount of money, it of course is, but it's only around a twentieth of the amount that the headlines and distortions of the campaign would have you believe.

More importantly though it is the most extreme interpretation of the possibilities. How many people who gamble on these machines seriously wager the maximum amount every 20 seconds for an hour (or more) at a time? I suspect very few. Far more likely is that they would wager smaller amounts, perhaps £5 or £10 a spin. So if someone did bet £5 for 180 spins they'd be on average down about £48. Now whether £48 spent in this way for an hour is a wise use of money is a different question. But of course losing £48 in an hour is not as scary or headline grabby as £18,000 in an hour.

As I said the politics and morality is for another post and I am not covering that here. I'm simply saying that if people want to campaign on this they should at least get the basic maths right.


*After the 32nd figure my calculator ran out of accuracy (because the number is so massive) so the final 19 digits are all zeroes meaning that it is rounded down.

Saturday, 21 December 2013

Political outrage template article

A [supporter/member/if you're lucky MP or Peer] of [political party you don't like] has made a [comment/speech/if you're lucky bad taste joke] that has offended a number of people.

Calls have been made for the [supporter/member/if you're lucky MP or Peer] to apologise for the [comment/speech/if you're lucky bad taste joke] that was made on [Tuesday/Question Time/if you're lucky Twitter].

The gaffe comes just [months/weeks/if you're lucky days] after [supporter/member/if you're doubly lucky MP or Peer] of [political party you don't like] also caused controversy with a [comment/speech/if you're on a real outrage winning streak bad taste joke] that also offended lots of people. [supporter/member/if you're doubly lucky MP or Peer] apologised for this at the time but these latest scandalous remarks show that they simply have not learned their lesson.

"They just don't get it" said a spokesperson for [pressure group/political party you do like/political party you dislike less than the political party you don't like]. "It's absolutely typical of people associated with that party and demonstrates why you should never vote for them."

Wednesday, 18 December 2013

House of Comments - Episode 89 - 2 Unlimited

Episode 89 of the House of Comments podcast "2 Unlimited" is out. Emma is back! Recovering well from her recent operation we discuss the recently floated "two child benefit and no more" policy from a close Cameron advisor, the gender pay gap rising and the BBC's policy on promotion and non-promotion of charities.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Saturday, 14 December 2013

Why the MP pay rise "scandal" matters - a lot

I wrote a piece last weekend arguing that MPs should have their pay rise. As a result of this I got a number of invites onto various TV and radio stations to explain my reasoning and argue for something that virtually no MPs (nor very few commentators) were willing to.

As a result of this I have engaged with a number of people and also listened to a fair few members of the public calling these shows to express their opinion. One thing that is abundantly clear is that there is a toxic atmosphere around the issue of MPs' pay. I had a fair bit of reaction to my stance on Twitter as well and the vast majority of it was also hostile. Incidentally the number of people who seemed to assume I had something personal to gain financially from taking the position I have was quite depressing; it seems the idea that someone might just believe something without directly benefitting from it themselves is somewhat outmoded.

The more I have been mulling this over the more concerned I am getting. Ever since the expenses scandal the subject of MPs and money has been a fraught one. But this goes further back. Much further back. The whole reason we had the dysfunctional expenses system which tacitly allowed MPs to claim in a way that substantially augmented their salaries is because Margaret Thatcher in the early 1980s turned down a report similar to the IPSA one today on MPs' pay and instead allowed the nod/wink system to flourish. Her reasoning was that the public would not stand for a large one-off pay rise for MPs. It was the wrong time. The idea it would ever be the right time for this is proven by history to be a falsehood.

So MPs' pay has been a difficult issue for a long time. But let's take a step back a minute. MPs are in a very special position. They are elected by close to 100,000 constituents. They are supposed to have gone through a process, both through initial selection and then later election that makes them the choice of those 100,000 people to represent them. They then are supposed to work very hard at representing those people and also holding the government to account (or if in government administering it in the interests of the entire country). It is an incredibly important job and it requires acute judgement and the ability to make very difficult choices well on behalf of constituents and more widely the whole country. They vote on whether we should go to war, how our health service works, how the poorest in society are treated by the state etc. etc. etc.

But if we cannot trust MPs to settle something very simple like their basic pay and working conditions for themselves then it does not take that much of a logical leap to start to question whether they will be able to take these other sorts of decisions well too. The pay issue is gone. That ship has sailed. We definitely do not trust them on it. There is almost unanimity on this, not least from MPs themselves who recognise the political reality. So what about other issues? Why would we trust them on anything else if we essentially think they are a bunch of shysters on the make and out only for themselves?

I should stress that despite the fact that I do think our politics is somewhat broken, I do not think MPs cannot be trusted to decide important issues. But it is clear that the majority of electors do think this if the response to this story in the last week is anything to go by. Indeed the fact the story lasted almost a week (and is still unresolved - incidentally I expect a deal will be stitched up to "reject" the pay rise) shows how strongly people feel about the issue.

I very much fear where this will ultimately lead. It is an obvious next step once MPs cannot be trusted on pay for them not to be trusted on all sorts of other things.

We elect them through the ballot box to represent us. If they mess up we can kick them out a few years later. If we need to strengthen this democratic link through e.g. some sort of parliamentary recall mechanism (and I think we should) then fine. Various other reforms are needed too as I have written about endlessly in the last 5 years. But there needs to come a point where we trust them to get on with it.

This is not all one way traffic. MPs themselves need to earn the trust and after the expenses scandal it is understandable that the public is wary. But if we cannot regain some sort of trust for politicians then our democratic system will eventually break. I cannot predict on what issue(s) it will eventually founder but when it does we will have a constitutional crisis the like of which we have not seen for several hundred years.

The MPs' pay "scandal" of 2013 is a harbinger of much worse things to come if we are not careful.

Monday, 9 December 2013

House of Comments - Episode 88 - Forever Autumn

Episode 88 of the House of Comments podcast "Forever Autumn" is out. I am joined by LabourList's Mark Ferguson and freelance journalist and Lib Dem activist Charlotte Henry to discuss Nelson Mandela's legacy, the aftermath of the Autumn Statement and whether MPs deserve an 11% pay rise.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Sunday, 8 December 2013

MPs should have their pay-rise - Oh, and it's 2.2% not 11%

Having seen the almost uniformly negative coverage of this "11% MP pay rise" (even from MPs themselves) I feel that somebody has to stick up for them.

All the commentary I have seen has been along the lines of the rest of the country is suffering from austerity and public sector wage rises have been kept to 1% so WHY ON EARTH SHOULD MPs HAVE AN 11% PAY RISE??!!!

Well firstly the rise would not be 11%. At least not if you measure it fairly and in the same way that pay-rises are measured for everybody else, i.e. annually. The salary is currently £66,396 (since Apr this year). The proposal is to raise it to £74,000 in 2015. So this would be a rise of just under 5.6% per year from that baseline. But that isn't really fair either because between Apr 2009 and Apr 2013 MPs' salaries rose by 0.6% annually (when the historic average of the last decade has been more like 2.2%). And this current rise is at least partly designed to address this. So when you compare the Apr 2009 figure with the proposed 2015 one you get an average pay-rise of 2.2% across the 6 years. Which doesn't even keep pace with inflation.

"AH!" I hear you cry "BUT WHAT ABOUT THE 1%?". But there's more dear irate capitalised fictional reader. IPSA are actually proposing quite radical changes to the structure of MPs' (historically very generous) pensions and also ironing out some expenses anomalies. So the cost to the taxpayer of this latest rise would actually be cost neutral. That's right, it won't cost us anything more. Not that you'd particularly have been aware of that judging by much of the coverage.

It's also worth noting that IPSA is an entirely independent body. Many MPs hate IPSA although most are reluctant to criticise them publicly. This is not a case of MPs with their snouts in the trough trying to diddle the taxpayer. It is an independent group who have scrutinised the current settlement and proposed some changes that will be entirely cost-neutral whilst addressing the fact that MPs' pay has been slipping back in the last few years. It sort of makes me wonder how we are ever going to get to a position where the politics can be taken out of this issue.

Perhaps the proposal to have rises linked to average wage increases is the answer although there are bound to be some sectors that suffer in the future even though the average is much better and hence relatively MPs will appear to be living high on the hog. There is probably no answer to this.

And I have to say that I am not really interested in what cabinet ministers like Phillip Hammond, David Cameron and Danny Alexander have to say on the subject as they all earn well over £100K anyway and in many cases are already very independently wealthy anyway. Just because they can afford to refuse a pay increase does not mean all other MPs should be pressured to do so too. We need to be very careful about this. If this sort of thing carries on and MPs are continually forced through political pressure to refuse successive pay rises we will eventually end up with even higher numbers of MPs from wealthy backgrounds which is not good for politics. We have seen a similar dynamic recently with the whole "expenses saints" phenomenon where MPs who do not claim any expenses at all are lauded. Of course they are all independently wealthy and can afford to pay the expenses themselves. This should not afford them better career prospects but sadly it does seem to be doing so.

In the meantime, can we please stop comparing apples with oranges? Putting the 11% MP figure alongside the 1% public sector figure is completely distorting and unfair. It would be much fairer to compare it to the 2.2% figure for the average rise over the last few years. And it would also only be just to acknowledge that it is cost neutral.

Anything else is simply bullying our MPs and I really do fear where that will ultimately lead.

Friday, 6 December 2013

House of Comments - Episode 87 - Reforming Sir Humphrey

Episode 87 of the House of Comments podcast "Reforming Sir Humphrey" is out. Myself and Emma discuss potential reform of the Civil Service, the Government's ideas on reducing energy bills and the increase in food banks.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.