Political Sandbox

Political Sandbox
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Thoughts on politics and life from a liberal perspective

Friday, 31 January 2014

House of Comments - Episode 95 - Protest Movements and Protest Parties

Episode 95 of the House of Comments podcast "Protest Movements and Protest Parties" is out. This week Nick Denys speaks to Christian May about the Ukrainian protests and Donna Edmunds, editor of Ukip Daily, about the political news and Ukip’s growing pains. Subjects covered include, raising the upper tax limit to 50p, Ukip’s appeal, Syrian refugees, and the treatment of women in politics.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Monday, 20 January 2014

House of Comments - Episode 94 - Cash4Fracking

Episode 94 of the House of Comments podcast "Cash4Fracking" is out. I am joined by Labour activist and council candidate Claire Spencer and Ruth Porter of the centre-right think tank Policy Exchange to discuss Ed Miliband's banking reforms, Osborne's £7 minimum wage intervention, cash incentives to councils for fracking and the continuing fallout from the Lord Rennard case.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Friday, 17 January 2014

An Ode to Ed

Sit back now whilst I tell you of the tale of an MP
Who used to be in power now he’s oppositionally
Opposed to almost everything the coalition does
He doesn’t like the “Bedroom Tax” or health reforms because
He thinks they hit the poorest ones in our society
And that this will provoke some unneeded anxiety
Most though it’s the “cost of living crisis” that offends him
When interviewers ask something he always always bends them
Round until the answer fits in with his preconceived
Ideas about the crisis and what Labour can achieve
But lately indications are his economic tactic
Could end up being seen as something rather unclimactic
Inflation falling isn’t what he wants at least until
His Number Ten ambition has been properly fulfilled
And as for Obsorne’s stunt about the seven quid min wage
Well that’s the thing that put him in a monumental rage
It runs the risk of landing his key plank upon the rocks
For now he knows the Chancellor has shot his “crisis” fox
The moral of this tale is if you wish to importune
Make sure your arguments are not a hostage to fortune




*I realise that technically this isn't quite an ode
I'm hoping you'll forgive me as I didn't think it showed

Wednesday, 8 January 2014

House of Comments - Episode 92 - Down in the Flood

Episode 92 of the House of Comments podcast "Down in the Flood" is out. Emma myself and our new third co-host Nick Denys discuss the newly released revelations about the miners' strike, the debate around Romanian and Bulgarian immigration, the recent floods and the politics of the Environment Agency and flood defences funding, the latest Lord Ashcroft "Mega Poll" and they make their political predictions for the coming year.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Monday, 6 January 2014

Harry Mount's casual inexactitude

In a piece today on his Telegraph Blog, Harry Mount made this casual assertion in the context of the Queen being a sound constitutional bulwark:

"...there's a steady source of alternative power when normal political life breaks down – as at the last election, when Gordon Brown, the hermit of Downing Street, desperately tried to cling on even though he'd lost the election."
That comment is about as far from the truth as it is possible to get. All the accounts I have read of those few days of negotiations back in 2010 (and that is a lot) show that he played his constitutional role correctly and as soon as it was clear the game was up, Brown wanted to go. If anything the opposite of what Mount says is true. Cameron and Clegg actually wanted more time to cement their deal but Brown had had enough and went to the Palace to resign. Clegg is on record as trying to dissuade him from resigning so quickly in their final phone call.

Lord knows there's enough to attack Brown for. There's simply no need to make stuff up Harry.

Sunday, 5 January 2014

Chuka Umunna's tribalistic attack on tribalism

The antidote to highly partisan politics?
When I hear the term "tribalism" one of the first names that generally pops into my head is the Shadow Business Secretary, Labour's Chuka Umunna. He's usually ready with a pre-prepared attack on the government or the Tories or the Lib Dems separately and is never afraid to be partial, often leaving out crucial information that would highlight problems or hypocrisy in his own party.

Fair enough you may think. He is after all a front-bencher and an aspiring future leader of his party.

But hold on a minute. Chuka has just penned a piece for The Guardian claiming that people are "turned off by tribal politics" and that "this has to change".

Shall we see how he got on suppressing his own tribal instincts?

Asked for the word best describing "how or what you instinctively feel" about politics and politicians, 47% of respondents answered "angry", against 25% who said "bored" in the Guardian/ICM poll on voter apathy last month. I've never bought the argument that people are apathetic about politics. Take Tulse Hill, the most deprived ward in my south London constituency, Streatham. At the 2010 general election, there were turnouts of more than 70% in some polling districts there. Because local elections and the general election took place on the same day, some constituents in the ward had to wait over half an hour to vote, but wait they did.
Fair point. This also happened in other constituencies and there was an outcry (largely forgotten now) on polling day as some people were turned away. He's right to address this. An auspicious start.

Since then, from the protests over the tripling of tuition fees in the autumn of 2010, through to the "March for the Alternative" in 2011 – which attracted hundreds of thousands of people from all walks of life – we have witnessed political engagement on a scale not seen for years. However, increasingly, people find party politics a turnoff. When they hear us in the House of Commons or on the TV, they increasingly reach for the remote. Party politics is in crisis.
This is less promising. There is nothing incorrect in what he says here but it is very, very partial. Yes there have been protests against coalition government policy but I would question his assertion that "we have witnessed political engagement on a scale not seen for years". It depends how many years and I am guessing Chuka is cutting it off at 10. Because if we go back 11 years to 2003 when the Labour government was at its most powerful we saw the largest street protests in this country's history against the Iraq War. And the idea that it is only since May 2010 that people have been turned off by party politics and the behaviour of MPs in the House of Commons is laughable. This has been going on and getting progressively worse for decades.

The reasons for this disconnect between party politics and those in whose name politics plays out are varied. The ridiculously adversarial way in which debate is sometimes conducted is a primary contributor, in my view. To contest ideas on what is best for our country is essential in a healthy democracy. But, in an age when people are less tribal and do not identify with political parties as strongly as they once did, those we represent are thoroughly fed up with the tribal, yah-boo nature of so much of what passes for political debate. Save for a welcome renaissance in our select committees, parliament's culture of political combat has changed little since the past century, while the world outside has changed. We urgently need to move with the times, too.
Agreed.

Though I am probably guilty of indulging in excessive tribalism myself at times, I try to put partisanship to one side where appropriate. Lord Heseltine is a Conservative peer – but that hasn't stopped me publicly praising his pursuit of industrial activism over the decades. I acknowledge when my Liberal Democrat opposite number, Vince Cable, does the right thing (it was he who rightly insisted that an Independent Commission on Banking be established), as well as point out when he and his colleagues get things wrong (dismantling the regional development agencies, for example).
This is more like it. Although the only Tory he is willing to praise has long since left front-line politics of course.

For businesses, this is particularly important: they are as interested in the areas where we agree as in those where we disagree, because consensus reduces risk and gives them confidence to invest for the long term, safe in the knowledge that not all the goalposts will move if the government changes. Many in businesses have told me that short-term political considerations risk standing in the way of the long-term investment. So, as Ed Balls has said, it is for this reason that we would, if elected, set up an independent infrastructure commission to end dither and delay, and to build cross-party consensus on big infrastructure projects that are, by their nature, multiple-parliament endeavours.
It is far from just Ed Balls who has tried to do this of course. For example the government is trying to get cross-party support for HS2 and Labour has been unwilling to commit to this for the long term. This may be fair enough if they genuinely have a problem with it, but it was their project in the first place and is a classic example of the problem Chuka is referring to. No mention of it though, just praise for Ed Balls.

Also, in a world that is less deferential, people resent policies being imposed on them from Westminster – communities want to be empowered to do things for themselves. We made a good start in office with devolution in London, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, with regional development agencies across England, to push power down and out. This is an unfinished project.
To read this you'd think that the only party that has devolved power is Labour. What about Police Commissioners? Labour opposed them. What about the attempt to devolve power within the NHS and for schools? Again Labour opposes these changes. He's trying to have his cake and eat it.

But it is not only our political culture and institutions that must adapt. No party that claims to want to reconnect politics with people can expect to be taken seriously if it is not prepared to take a long, hard look in the mirror and accept that it must change, too. This is ultimately what Ed Miliband's proposed reforms of the Labour party are about.
Just Labour. No mention of what other parties have done.

Political parties – which too often operate like closed circles – must open up. It is why Ed is absolutely right to propose that Labour picks its next London mayoral candidate by way of a primary, in which any Londoner would be eligible to vote, provided that they register as a supporter of the Labour party. The French Socialists picked up their presidential candidate this way in October 2011 – more than 2.8 million French citizens took part, paying €1 or more, raising crucial funds, increasing supporter activism and without compromising the standing of their party members.
No mention of the open primaries and many open caucuses that the Conservative Party had before the 2010 election. Just praise for Ed Miliband for something that hasn't even happened yet rather than reaching out to praise something another party has already done to directly address what he is asking for.

Rebuilding party membership is vital. The Conservative party's membership has reportedly halved under David Cameron to 134,000. Labour's membership has increased substantially since 2010 to around 190,000, but the long-term trend has been in the other direction. That's why Ed is determined we become a mass movement once again.
Every party loses members in office as they have to take "tough decisions". So highlighting what has happened to the Conservative Party in office and contrasting with Labour in opposition is just tribalistic posturing. He gives an oblique nod to the long term trend but puts no figures on it so we can judge or contrast. I'll provide them though. Labour had over 400,000 members in 1997 so in the last 17 years its membership has more than halved. In fact more accurately it had halved by 2004 in only 7 years. Since then it went down further and has bounced back up a bit but is now still less than 200,000.

Developing a more meaningful relationship with the 3 million working men and women who are members of the trade unions that sit inside the Labour family will give our party a head start in addressing this. It will open up our party and give working people a real choice and voice as individuals inside Labour. What Ed's package of party reforms will do is to update a party architecture constructed in the 20th century to make it fit for the 21st, better embedding our party in every community.
I have happily given Ed Miliband credit for his decision to do this. But again there is no mention of any of the measures any of the other parties have taken or attempted to do to address the democratic deficit in this country.

There is no mention of the AV referendum (which so many in his own party opposed), a change which would likely have reduced tribalism by encouraging candidates to reach out across party divides to try and get second and third preferences. No mention of how his own leader manouvered to stymie the reforms to the House of Lords which were trying to ensure it was largely elected. No mention of how so many of his own party's MPs are increasing drawn from a very narrow demographic. No mention of how the Labour leadership succession in 2007 was stitched up for Gordon Brown without even allowing the party members a meaningful choice (with the two Eds in the thick of this as Brown's two closest advisers). No mention of the many, many meetings that David Cameron and Nick Clegg have had in local meeting halls over the years to help reconnect with voters and revive this tradition. No mention of how so many in his own party (including him) have attacked coalition compromises precisely because they are compromises (as if coalition could ever have been anything else), pursuing a "betrayal" narrative thus undermining the whole notion of the very consensual politics he claims to want to see more of.

I could go on.

Much more besides what I've described needs to happen if we are to reconnect people to political parties. Why does it matter? Why not let the main parties wither? Because I know of no better vehicle than the political party to enable those with common values to come together and reach a position on issues that can then be offered up as a choice of programmes for voters. If we are to remain relevant and do this more effectively, reform is not an option, it is a necessity.
I agree. It's just that Labour's is not the only way to do it. Not that you'd realise this from this highly partial and partisan piece.

Chuka Umunna has managed the remarkable feat here of writing a piece that supposedly rails against tribalism whilst simultaneously being highly tribalistic.

If it wasn't so depressing I'd almost be impressed.

Wednesday, 1 January 2014

How did I do on my 2013 predictions? (Spoiler alert: Badly)

  1. Bruce Forsyth will retire and hence will not be a main host on Strictly Come Dancing 2013 (although he may pop in to say hello). Sort of half a point here really. He had several episodes off and I can't imagine it's too long before he properly leaves.
  2. Despite rumours of a potential replacement, Ed Balls will still be Shadow Chancellor come the end of the year. Ding
  3. Chris Huhne will return to the cabinet. Very much un-ding.
  4. Someone with a blog on the Lib Dem Blogs aggregator who has never been a parliamentarian will be enobled. As far as I know this has not happened although I am happy to be corrected if I missed someone*.
  5. The government will announce a timetable for the abolition of 1p and 2p coins. Nope
  6. David Cameron will announce an in/out referendum on Europe to take place if the Conservatives win the next election. Ding
  7. The Universal Credit will be delayed and eventually abandoned (this bit may happen next year) due to too many technical problems. IDS will resign when this finally happens. I'm claiming this one. It is clear that the project has failed it's just taking a very long time to put it out of its misery and they're managing it in such a way as IDS can save face and not resign.
  8. We will manage to get a government minister on as a guest on the House of Comments Podcast. Didn't manage this although a couple of them were approached. Maybe this year.
  9. One of either Mark Pack or Stephen Tall from off of Lib Dem Voice will appear on BBC's Question Time. This sadly did not happen. It's surely only a matter of time though as they are both strong media performers. Although I would suggest in the run up to the Scottish independence referendum they should get Caron Lindsay on.
  10. For four years now I have predicted that Eddie Mair will become the main presenter of Question Time. But as Dimbleby_D still shows no signs of going anywhere any time soon I'm going to change this one. Mr Mair showed his mettle as a stand-in presenter on Newsnight during the Savile crisis so I now predict he will become a regular presenter on Newsnight when it is revamped this year. This did not happen but Paxman seems to me to be in the ante room now so Mair is probably in prime position to take over this year.
  11. All around my hat I will wear the green willow, and all around my hat for a twelve month and a day. As we are still less than a twelve month (and a day) since I made this prediction I cannot yet reveal whether I managed it.

So 3.5 (and that's being generous to myself) out of 10. I'll just have to hope I do better with my 2014 predictions which I will post soon.


*UPDATE: Turns out I was actually right. Olly Grender was enobled in 2013 and her New Statesman blog was on the aggregator. So I got 4.5 out of 10! Thanks to Stephen Tall and Ryan Cullen for spotting and confirming this respectively.

Sunday, 22 December 2013

Debunking the "Gambling away £100 every 20 seconds" myth

"At the moment, a punter can walk into a high street bookmakers and gamble away £100 every 20 seconds for 13 hours."
Tom Watson - HuffPostUK - Oct 2013

I'm highlighting this claim about Fixed Odds Betting Terminals in particular because it is so mathematically wrong-headed. Also because the "gambling away £100 every 20 seconds" and "gambling away £18,000 per hour" narratives are now forming a core part of the campaign against FOBTs. I may come back to the political and moral arguments on this subject in a later post. But for now I just want to focus on the maths.

FOBTs, which are most commonly roulette have a house edge of between 2.7% and around 5%. This is in line with the standard odds yielded by a roulette table. If a table has a single zero then the odds of winning on a red or black bet are just less than 50/50 (because if it comes up zero the house wins). So with 36 numbers plus zero the chances of winning in a single spin are 18/37 or 0.486. This yields a house edge of just over 2.7%. If the roulette table has two zeroes (a zero and a double zero) then the odds are titled more in the house's favour as it becomes 18/38 or 0.474 yielding a house edge of 5.26%.

So as probability theory tells us, over the long term we would expect a punter on the first type of table to be about 2.7% down and a punter on the second type of table to be 5.26% down. For the rest of this piece I am going to focus on the second type of table as I wanted to pick the worst case scenario for this to be generous.

If someone was foolhardy enough to bet £100 on a red or black bet every 20 seconds for an hour on this sort of table they would be incredibly unlikely to lose (or "gamble away" to use Watson's term) £18,000. In fact we can calculate just how unlikely this is. We simply take the chance of them losing each time and multiply this number by itself the number of times they are going to play. From this we can see that the chance of this happening is (1-(18/38))^180

Which is one in 149,847,041,024,310,787,847,729,246,045,620,000,000,000,000,000,000*

Or to put it another way roughly the same likelihood as picking two random molecules of water from all the oceans of the world and them being the same one. In other words pretty much as close to impossible as you can theoretically get.

In actual fact someone who gambled £100 every 20 seconds for an hour would not have "gambled away £18,000". They would, on average gamble away 5.26% of £18,000 or £946.80. Now I'm not trying to claim this is not a large amount of money, it of course is, but it's only around a twentieth of the amount that the headlines and distortions of the campaign would have you believe.

More importantly though it is the most extreme interpretation of the possibilities. How many people who gamble on these machines seriously wager the maximum amount every 20 seconds for an hour (or more) at a time? I suspect very few. Far more likely is that they would wager smaller amounts, perhaps £5 or £10 a spin. So if someone did bet £5 for 180 spins they'd be on average down about £48. Now whether £48 spent in this way for an hour is a wise use of money is a different question. But of course losing £48 in an hour is not as scary or headline grabby as £18,000 in an hour.

As I said the politics and morality is for another post and I am not covering that here. I'm simply saying that if people want to campaign on this they should at least get the basic maths right.


*After the 32nd figure my calculator ran out of accuracy (because the number is so massive) so the final 19 digits are all zeroes meaning that it is rounded down.

Saturday, 21 December 2013

Political outrage template article

A [supporter/member/if you're lucky MP or Peer] of [political party you don't like] has made a [comment/speech/if you're lucky bad taste joke] that has offended a number of people.

Calls have been made for the [supporter/member/if you're lucky MP or Peer] to apologise for the [comment/speech/if you're lucky bad taste joke] that was made on [Tuesday/Question Time/if you're lucky Twitter].

The gaffe comes just [months/weeks/if you're lucky days] after [supporter/member/if you're doubly lucky MP or Peer] of [political party you don't like] also caused controversy with a [comment/speech/if you're on a real outrage winning streak bad taste joke] that also offended lots of people. [supporter/member/if you're doubly lucky MP or Peer] apologised for this at the time but these latest scandalous remarks show that they simply have not learned their lesson.

"They just don't get it" said a spokesperson for [pressure group/political party you do like/political party you dislike less than the political party you don't like]. "It's absolutely typical of people associated with that party and demonstrates why you should never vote for them."

Wednesday, 18 December 2013

House of Comments - Episode 89 - 2 Unlimited

Episode 89 of the House of Comments podcast "2 Unlimited" is out. Emma is back! Recovering well from her recent operation we discuss the recently floated "two child benefit and no more" policy from a close Cameron advisor, the gender pay gap rising and the BBC's policy on promotion and non-promotion of charities.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Saturday, 14 December 2013

Why the MP pay rise "scandal" matters - a lot

I wrote a piece last weekend arguing that MPs should have their pay rise. As a result of this I got a number of invites onto various TV and radio stations to explain my reasoning and argue for something that virtually no MPs (nor very few commentators) were willing to.

As a result of this I have engaged with a number of people and also listened to a fair few members of the public calling these shows to express their opinion. One thing that is abundantly clear is that there is a toxic atmosphere around the issue of MPs' pay. I had a fair bit of reaction to my stance on Twitter as well and the vast majority of it was also hostile. Incidentally the number of people who seemed to assume I had something personal to gain financially from taking the position I have was quite depressing; it seems the idea that someone might just believe something without directly benefitting from it themselves is somewhat outmoded.

The more I have been mulling this over the more concerned I am getting. Ever since the expenses scandal the subject of MPs and money has been a fraught one. But this goes further back. Much further back. The whole reason we had the dysfunctional expenses system which tacitly allowed MPs to claim in a way that substantially augmented their salaries is because Margaret Thatcher in the early 1980s turned down a report similar to the IPSA one today on MPs' pay and instead allowed the nod/wink system to flourish. Her reasoning was that the public would not stand for a large one-off pay rise for MPs. It was the wrong time. The idea it would ever be the right time for this is proven by history to be a falsehood.

So MPs' pay has been a difficult issue for a long time. But let's take a step back a minute. MPs are in a very special position. They are elected by close to 100,000 constituents. They are supposed to have gone through a process, both through initial selection and then later election that makes them the choice of those 100,000 people to represent them. They then are supposed to work very hard at representing those people and also holding the government to account (or if in government administering it in the interests of the entire country). It is an incredibly important job and it requires acute judgement and the ability to make very difficult choices well on behalf of constituents and more widely the whole country. They vote on whether we should go to war, how our health service works, how the poorest in society are treated by the state etc. etc. etc.

But if we cannot trust MPs to settle something very simple like their basic pay and working conditions for themselves then it does not take that much of a logical leap to start to question whether they will be able to take these other sorts of decisions well too. The pay issue is gone. That ship has sailed. We definitely do not trust them on it. There is almost unanimity on this, not least from MPs themselves who recognise the political reality. So what about other issues? Why would we trust them on anything else if we essentially think they are a bunch of shysters on the make and out only for themselves?

I should stress that despite the fact that I do think our politics is somewhat broken, I do not think MPs cannot be trusted to decide important issues. But it is clear that the majority of electors do think this if the response to this story in the last week is anything to go by. Indeed the fact the story lasted almost a week (and is still unresolved - incidentally I expect a deal will be stitched up to "reject" the pay rise) shows how strongly people feel about the issue.

I very much fear where this will ultimately lead. It is an obvious next step once MPs cannot be trusted on pay for them not to be trusted on all sorts of other things.

We elect them through the ballot box to represent us. If they mess up we can kick them out a few years later. If we need to strengthen this democratic link through e.g. some sort of parliamentary recall mechanism (and I think we should) then fine. Various other reforms are needed too as I have written about endlessly in the last 5 years. But there needs to come a point where we trust them to get on with it.

This is not all one way traffic. MPs themselves need to earn the trust and after the expenses scandal it is understandable that the public is wary. But if we cannot regain some sort of trust for politicians then our democratic system will eventually break. I cannot predict on what issue(s) it will eventually founder but when it does we will have a constitutional crisis the like of which we have not seen for several hundred years.

The MPs' pay "scandal" of 2013 is a harbinger of much worse things to come if we are not careful.

Monday, 9 December 2013

House of Comments - Episode 88 - Forever Autumn

Episode 88 of the House of Comments podcast "Forever Autumn" is out. I am joined by LabourList's Mark Ferguson and freelance journalist and Lib Dem activist Charlotte Henry to discuss Nelson Mandela's legacy, the aftermath of the Autumn Statement and whether MPs deserve an 11% pay rise.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Sunday, 8 December 2013

MPs should have their pay-rise - Oh, and it's 2.2% not 11%

Having seen the almost uniformly negative coverage of this "11% MP pay rise" (even from MPs themselves) I feel that somebody has to stick up for them.

All the commentary I have seen has been along the lines of the rest of the country is suffering from austerity and public sector wage rises have been kept to 1% so WHY ON EARTH SHOULD MPs HAVE AN 11% PAY RISE??!!!

Well firstly the rise would not be 11%. At least not if you measure it fairly and in the same way that pay-rises are measured for everybody else, i.e. annually. The salary is currently £66,396 (since Apr this year). The proposal is to raise it to £74,000 in 2015. So this would be a rise of just under 5.6% per year from that baseline. But that isn't really fair either because between Apr 2009 and Apr 2013 MPs' salaries rose by 0.6% annually (when the historic average of the last decade has been more like 2.2%). And this current rise is at least partly designed to address this. So when you compare the Apr 2009 figure with the proposed 2015 one you get an average pay-rise of 2.2% across the 6 years. Which doesn't even keep pace with inflation.

"AH!" I hear you cry "BUT WHAT ABOUT THE 1%?". But there's more dear irate capitalised fictional reader. IPSA are actually proposing quite radical changes to the structure of MPs' (historically very generous) pensions and also ironing out some expenses anomalies. So the cost to the taxpayer of this latest rise would actually be cost neutral. That's right, it won't cost us anything more. Not that you'd particularly have been aware of that judging by much of the coverage.

It's also worth noting that IPSA is an entirely independent body. Many MPs hate IPSA although most are reluctant to criticise them publicly. This is not a case of MPs with their snouts in the trough trying to diddle the taxpayer. It is an independent group who have scrutinised the current settlement and proposed some changes that will be entirely cost-neutral whilst addressing the fact that MPs' pay has been slipping back in the last few years. It sort of makes me wonder how we are ever going to get to a position where the politics can be taken out of this issue.

Perhaps the proposal to have rises linked to average wage increases is the answer although there are bound to be some sectors that suffer in the future even though the average is much better and hence relatively MPs will appear to be living high on the hog. There is probably no answer to this.

And I have to say that I am not really interested in what cabinet ministers like Phillip Hammond, David Cameron and Danny Alexander have to say on the subject as they all earn well over £100K anyway and in many cases are already very independently wealthy anyway. Just because they can afford to refuse a pay increase does not mean all other MPs should be pressured to do so too. We need to be very careful about this. If this sort of thing carries on and MPs are continually forced through political pressure to refuse successive pay rises we will eventually end up with even higher numbers of MPs from wealthy backgrounds which is not good for politics. We have seen a similar dynamic recently with the whole "expenses saints" phenomenon where MPs who do not claim any expenses at all are lauded. Of course they are all independently wealthy and can afford to pay the expenses themselves. This should not afford them better career prospects but sadly it does seem to be doing so.

In the meantime, can we please stop comparing apples with oranges? Putting the 11% MP figure alongside the 1% public sector figure is completely distorting and unfair. It would be much fairer to compare it to the 2.2% figure for the average rise over the last few years. And it would also only be just to acknowledge that it is cost neutral.

Anything else is simply bullying our MPs and I really do fear where that will ultimately lead.

Friday, 6 December 2013

House of Comments - Episode 87 - Reforming Sir Humphrey

Episode 87 of the House of Comments podcast "Reforming Sir Humphrey" is out. Myself and Emma discuss potential reform of the Civil Service, the Government's ideas on reducing energy bills and the increase in food banks.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Monday, 25 November 2013

House of Comments - Episode 86 - The Day of the Reverend

Episode 86 of the House of Comments podcast "The Day of the Reverend" is out. Myself and Emma are joined by Conservative activist Nick Denys to discuss the fallout from the Co-op Bank and Paul Flowers scandal, Dominic Grieve's comments about a "favour culture" within some ethnic minority communities and should there be a new National Liberal party? Oh and we also discuss Doctor Who's 50th anniversary. Well two of us do.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Tuesday, 19 November 2013

House of Comments - Episode 85 - Leaving the Lib Dems

Episode 85 of the House of Comments podcast "Leaving the Lib Dems" is out. Myself and Emma are joined by co-editor of Lib Dem Voice Caron Lindsay to discuss how politics works with respect to my decision to leave the Lib Dems, Tory web history deletion shenanigans and the Ed Balls "Nightmare" e-mail.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Friday, 15 November 2013

Why I am leaving the Lib Dems - AKA This is not a Flounce

I have decided to leave the Lib Dems.

This is something that has probably been creeping up for a while. There have been a number of things that the party has done in government that I have not been happy with, although it is not really any one of those things that has triggered this.

I should probably start by saying what this is not. It is not a flounce off where I have a massive go at the party. It has been and will continue to be extraordinarily difficult being in government for a minor party and this would be equally true if the coalition was with Labour. The Lib Dems get a huge amount of blame. Their poll ratings have dropped by two thirds. Much of the criticism they endure is of the tenor of “HOW COULD THEY DO THIS IT IS A BETRAYAL?!” which usually fails to even recognise that coalition is always a compromise. I very rarely however hear any criticism that focuses on how the person attacking them thinks they have made the wrong compromises, it is almost always the fact they have made any compromises at all. Such attacks seem to want things to go back to the “good old days” of Red vs Blue with the Yellows on the side lines being ignored and/or laughed at. I do not envy the task that the party has faced and I am far from sure I could have done any better were I in Clegg’s (or any other minister’s) shoes. Indeed I expect I would have done worse. There are political traps everywhere laid by those who want binary politics back.

And actually the above paragraph is really where my disillusionment has come from. Of course I wasn’t happy with secret courts, in fact I was furious. The removal of the spare room subsidy is just mean spirited and ultimately self-defeating. Tuition fees were an absolute mess. Cutting the 50p rate may have been economically sensible but was politically idiotic. I could probably come up with dozens more things that I have not supported. But it is not really any of these, as I said government is tough and there is plenty from the Lib Dem manifesto that has ended up in government.

The impetus for me to leave is really because politics is broken. The Westminster Village is obsessed with who managed to shout the best for 5 minutes and get their friends to jeer and point at the other side just after midday on a Wednesday. They genuinely seem to think it matters. I very rarely even bother watching PMQs any more. They insist on speaking in sound bites and clichés and point-blank refuse to answer questions thinking that their “clever” evasions can’t be seen for precisely what they are. The tribal nature of much of what goes on drives me nuts. Labour have been the worst for this in recent years castigating the current government for doing things that they would almost certainly have done themselves and in a number of cases were actively planning to. But none of the main parties are free from this sort of thing. It reduces politics to a bunch of silly games where tiny nuances are picked up on and there are a million hidden rules that only highly experienced practitioners of the “art” of politics are aware of. That’s one of the reason so many of them are now former SpAds. It is only by immersing yourself in this culture for decades that you can learn these rules. People who may have spent most of their lives doing something else much more worthwhile aren’t aware of them and thus struggle to become part of the inner circles of real power being seen as ingénues who have little to offer. Sarah Woolaston, a woman who spent most of her life as a doctor is an excellent example of this.

None of this is specifically the fault of the Lib Dems. But they are complicit in it. They have 57 MPs. They are part of the government. They have tried to change some of this but on the constitutional and political reform front they have utterly failed. Again I am not blaming them particularly. The forces of conservatism in Labour and the Tories closed ranks to ensure AV (what would have been a very minor, positive change) was a failure and they killed Lords reform too. Those who sneer that the Lib Dems are to blame themselves for all of this fail to recognise just how far the status quo will go to preserve itself.

I joined the Lib Dems over 5 years ago in the hope that I could be part of something that would advance electoral reform, move the government’s drugs policy in a positive direction and improve civil liberties. On the first two we are further away than we were when I joined*. The third one has been a case of two steps forward in some areas (e.g. ID cards) but two steps back in others (e.g. secret courts).

I have become convinced that real change needs to come from outside of the three main parties now. I’m not calling for a Brand-esque revolution or telling people they shouldn’t vote. That was totally irresponsible. I will certainly be voting at the next election and I may well vote for the Lib Dems. I have been interested in some of what the Green Party has to say although some of their more statist policies turn me off. I am also interested in the nascent Pirate Party philosophy. But the truth is I have had enough of being a member of a party for now. I only joined at the age of 34 having spent the previous two decades as a highly politically engaged lone wolf. Perhaps that is my natural state.

I think that love them or loathe them groups like 38 Degrees and the TPA have shown how much outside groups can influence things. The power of political parties is waning. The financial crisis has shown the limits of business as usual and yet nothing his really changed yet. We have a political system that was designed hundreds of years ago and it is utterly unfit for the world we now live in. But I see and hear very few people agitating for the sort of fundamental change we need. And I include myself in that criticism. I have on occasion bemoaned one or other aspect of it but being a member of one of the main parties, attending the conferences, speaking on the media as a member, posting leaflets, canvassing for them and generally doing all that a good party member should has made it difficult for me to say what I really think and has ultimately become untenable for me.

When the Occupy movement started a couple of years ago I was absolutely disgusted at the response of most people involved in politics at all levels. Although the movement was somewhat incoherent it was raising incredibly important questions. But all I seemed to hear was how they were disturbing people’s peace and USING IPHONES THE HYPOCRITCAL IDIOTS!!!!!11111 Occupy didn’t have all the answers but they were an example of just how disillusioned people have become.

I don’t know how politics will look in 30 or 50 years time but I feel sure that with technological change and the mistrust that we now see in almost all of our institutions it will ultimately be radically different. I desperately want to see a more responsive, representative, evidence based and tolerant politics. I have just reluctantly come to the conclusion that remaining a member of one of the main parties will not help us get there.

I will miss attending the conferences and being part of a strong movement with very deep roots. I have made some good friends in the party and I hope to keep in touch with them all. I expect some will be disappointed that I have not chosen to continue to fight the good fight from inside but I hope they will understand my reasons.

I intend to keep blogging on here, writing in other places (if they’ll still have me) and podcasting. I also intend to keep popping up on the media as and when I can although I expect I’ll be less of a draw now I’m not in one of the main camps.

But most of all I fully intend to try and help nudge us towards the better sort of politics that I fervently believe we as a country deserve.


*This is not to denigrate the excellent work done by Ewan Hoyle and others within Lib Dems for Drug Policy Reform. The party's policy on drugs is very good, it's just that almost none of it has ended up in a change to government policy.

Monday, 11 November 2013

House of Comments - Episode 84 - Universal Discredit

Episode 84 of the House of Comments podcast "Universal Discredit" is out. Myself and Emma joined by the editor of The New Statesman blog The Staggers George Eaton to discuss the latest Universal Credit debacle, the NHS A&E crisis, the latest on an EU referendum, the ending of shipbuilding in Portsmouth and whether there's a link to Scottish independence and finally oversight of spending on the monarchy. Warning - contains republican ranting.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Wednesday, 6 November 2013

House of Comments - Episode 83 - The Royal Charter of Doom

Episode 83 of the House of Comments podcast "The Royal Charter of Doom" is out. Myself and Emma discuss the press Royal Charter, the living wage, energy prices and also whether we should be paying for MPs fuel bills on their second homes.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes here.

Other podcasting software e.g. for Android can be pointed here to subscribe.

You can download the mp3 for the latest episode directly from here.

Or you can listen to the embedded episode below here:



Any feedback welcomed in the comments below.


PS: A big thanks to Audioboo for hosting the podcast for us. We would also like to thank Kevin MacLeod from Incompetech.com for our theme music.

Sunday, 3 November 2013

A SpAd state of affairs

Imagine you are are very interested in a particular field of business. Now imagine that after closely studying this type of business you realise that becoming a PA or advisor to someone senior within that field is a good way to get a solid grounding in it for your future career prospects as indeed it often can be. There's no substitute for close interaction with industry leaders.

So after all this how would you react if when having come to this conclusion, all the PA and advisor jobs in the field you are passionate about are all stitched up behind closed doors without adequate due process and in some cases even an interview. You'd be pretty miffed I'd expect.

Of course industry used to work almost exclusively like this with a nod and a wink and a "My nephew would be a good fit for you Sir Charles". It would be naive to think this does not still go on to some extent but over the years as a society we have started to recognise that you don't get the best people like this. This is why there are rules in place about open interview processes and laws against discrimination.

But there is one field where this sort of nodding, winking and "jobs for the boys" culture is rife. It is of course politics.

A fictional SpAd from off of the telly box
If you were passionate about politics at the previous election and were of a Tory or Lib Dem persuasion you may have been interested in becoming a Special Advisor to a government minister. Dozens of them were appointed in May 2010 and as various of them have left dozens more have been appointed since too. Maybe I'm not looking hard enough but I've struggled to find job adverts for any of them*. The process of appointment for these people is opaque at best, some may say deliberately so.

I understand it's a tricky situation because ministers are looking for people they can trust and who understand both aspects of their department and also the delicate politics of the party they represent and more widely the impact of policies. So it is natural for them to fall back on a largely self-selecting coterie of people, many of whom have studied PPE or similar at top universities and have spent much of their careers in politics or think-tankery (or of course the media). But the big problem with this approach is that it forms a self-perpetuating clique of like-minded (and often like-looking) individuals all of whom come from relatively similar backgrounds.

If SpAds simply remained SpAds this would be an irritating but somewhat hidden phenomenon. But they don't remain advisors. They increasingly try to get elected themselves and often succeed. David Cameron, George Osborne, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls and Nick Clegg were all special advisors either to cabinet ministers or in Clegg's case an EU Commissioner (Leon Brittan) before they got into politics. That's probably the 5 most senior people in politics today and all of them to a man (and that is also part of the problem - they're often male) came up the SpAd route. And you don't have to look much further down the food chain to find people like Yvette Cooper, Oliver Letwin, Andy Burnham, Stella Creasy and David Laws all of whom had roles as political advisors of one form or another before they got elected.

This is not good for our politics. Most people agree that we need our MPs and government to be drawn from as wide a spectrum of people as possible. So this sort of cliquey back-room approach to appointing people to these roles that are more influential in some cases than many MPs and even junior ministers (just read Damian McBride's book for copious evidence of this) is very bad.

Indeed those same politicians who lecture the rest of us and legislate in order to make sure we are open and transparent in how we hire people in our businesses are doing almost the exact opposite when it comes to their own advisors.

It's time for this to change. We need to see a much more open process for hiring these sort of advisors. It may well be that the think-tank wonk who drinks in all the Westminster bars and is personally known to the minister and their partner is the best person for the job. But it may be that someone they have never heard of who has been quietly beavering away understanding politics and the policy area in question would fit the role even better.

I'll be much happier when we start to see a fully transparent hiring process for every advisor role appointed in Westminster. That way we know anyone can apply and it will be much harder for them to stitch things up in favour of the usual suspects.


*I have not been able to find any adverts for SpAds at all although I am happy to be corrected if anyone wants to point any out to me.