Thoughts on politics and life from a liberal perspective

Thursday, 6 May 2010

Sunderland South result swing would suggest comfortable Tory majority

Ollie Cromwell sitting next to me has just crunched the numbers from the first result just declared in Sunderland South which shows an 8.5% swing from Labour to Conservative.

On a swing like that applied nationally, the Conservatives would have around 353 seats, Labour on 212 seats and Lib Dems on 55.

It's difficult to extrapolate from this to national trends of course but interesting to note.


Eoghan said...

Sunderland Central not so. Also, Sunderland Central was predicted ages ago as somewhere we might see pretty dramatic swing. So still too early to tell much

Cardinal Richelieu's mole said...

From 538: -

"1:46 AM (BST) [Daniel Berman]: It's worth noting that the country as a whole is recording a swing against the Liberal Democrats, something especially pronounced in Scotland where their former leader, Menzies Campbell, saw 5% swing against him. The fact that they failed to take City of Durham, one of their top targets, and in fact only gained a .6% swing, may argue that the Clegg surge, by diffusing and confusing their targeting strategy may have actually cost them seats they otherwise would have taken on their past record of maxmizing their votes in target seats."

Does this mean Clegg is out then?