Thoughts on politics and life from a liberal perspective

Thursday, 6 May 2010

General Election 2010 Prediction

OK. I am going to stick my neck out here and predict what will happen in terms of number of seats:

Conservative: 295
Labour: 235
Lib Dems: 100
Other: 30

I am not basing this on anything other than gut instinct. I think the Lib Dems will do slightly better in seat share than the UNS calculators are predicting because UNS breaks down once the party gets beyond the mid 20s. I also think that the Conservatives have such an electoral mountain to climb that they will just not be able to get into overall majority territory in one leap from their position in 2005.

Of course a few hours into tomorrow the picture will become clear and I will probably be totally wrong!

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