How are my 2009 predictions bearing up?
At the start of the year, along with a number of other bloggers I published a list of my predictions for 2009. I thought just over half way through the year would be a good point to review how I am doing so far:
- Gordon Brown will not call a general election this year. I do not think he has the courage and he will run down the clock. This is looking like a safe bet and he may even be turfed out before he gets the chance. Either way, he will not call it himself.
- Labour's poll ratings will nosedive again in the first half of the year as the recession really starts to bite. They will not recover. It has happened as I predicted and I cannot see them recovering in the next 5 months.
- Peter Mandelson will be out of the cabinet again within the next 12 months. Looks like I was wrong on this, the opposite has happened as he is now arguably the most powerful minister in the government. I thought the old Manelson knack of getting mired in controversy would precipitate a final fall but it looks unlikely now.
- Ireland will again vote "No" in the second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. We will wait and see on this. I still think this will happen.
- DD will be back in the shadow cabinet but not as Shadow Home Secretary. Looking unlikely now as he has burnt his bridges. I think the Tories need to make better use of him though rather than leaving someone of his talents on the back benches. I guess this will come after the election now though.
- Lynne Featherstone will be promoted to a high profile role on the Lib Dem front-bench. This has also not happened yet but she is heading up the Technology Board which I am involved with. There is still time for the party to promote her further!
- Eddie Mair will become the new host of Question Time. Dimbo is showing no signs of going yet. I still think Mr Mair would make a great host but he may need to wait a little longer for his shot.
- Jonathan Ross will leave the BBC. There have been murmurings in this direction but the fuss about Ross has largely faded into the background as he has tried to keep his nose clean. I think this is now not likely to happen.
- The US will make great strides in shifting their economy to low carbon. It is happening as Obama puts his campaign pledges into action.
- Solid state hard drives will start to become standard in laptops by the end of the year. This is not happening as fast as I had hoped. We might have to wait to 2010 for the tipping point to happen.
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3 comments:
I'll keep away from the politics and stick to the media on this one.
Dimbleby will stay for at least five more years - the audience will need time to grow accustomed to the eventual permanent successor.
Ross will never leave the Beeb voluntarily and the Beeb will never get rid of him if they can help it. He is the lynchpin of the arts entertainment industry and set his sights on becoming Mr Friday Night since very early on. Nobody can match his contact book or his ability to appeal to MOR and street audiences. The two coexist in a symbiotic relationship and are married for the foreseeable future.
Just the other day Gove was in the papers saying the Tories needed to make more use of DD's abilities - maybe he's still got a chance of a promotion?
I'll have to disagree with number four. Since the last Lisbon referendum the Irish economy has nosedived worse than any other in Europe. Rightly or wrongly, I think the Irish electorate will see a second No vote as a potential threat to economic recovery. With unemployment at 12% Irish voters just can’t afford to put principals first this time (apologies, if that sounds ultra-cynical).
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