There has been some speculation that given recent polls, David Cameron might consider ditching the coalition and going to the country again to try and get a mandate of his own. The Sun triggered more of this yesterday by explicitly asking in a tweet whether the highest poll ratings all year for the Tories (43%) with the Lib Dems languishing on 15% could persuade them to call a snap election to ditch the yellows.
Here are three reasons why this just will not happen in increasing order of importance:
1) It's not just the Tories who are up. Labour is also up to 34%, 5 or so percentage points above its election day level of 29%. Although on a uniform national swing this would give the Tories a majority of around 26, that is hardly resounding and it would only take the polls to deviate a little from these levels for even that slender majority to be at risk. In fact within the margin of error, if Labour went up to 37% and the Tories dropped to 40% Labour would be the largest single party. Prime Ministers just do not go to the country and risk it all so soon in a parliament in these sort of circumstances.
2) Cameron has gone very far out of his way to say time and again that he actively wants the coalition for the good of the country. Although it was a surprise to some straight after the election that he started talking like this he has gained many plaudits and is seen as a much more consensual and pragmatic politician. This has led to huge rises in his personal approval rating. How would he explain another sudden change, this time without the pragmatic necessity of dumping the coalition and going for electoral broke?
3) Most importantly, these polling figures would likely turn out to be will-o'-the-wisp. Yes the Tories are on 43% but that is with David Cameron as perceived through the filter of all the things I mentioned in point 2. If he was to ditch the coalition then suddenly, far from being a sensible leader putting the needs of the country first he would appear to be just another politician doing the dirty on his coalition partners for no apparent reason in order to capitalise on a poll bounce. I would fully expect the Tory ratings to fall in those circumstances, perhaps quite a long way. One corollary is that the Lib Dems may benefit from this and gain some percentage points out of sympathy as the "wronged" partner. Labour would almost certainly benefit though.
David Cameron is far too smart and canny a politician to fall into this trap. I fully expect the coalition to continue for a good while longer irrespective of where the polls go.