Thoughts on politics and life from a liberal perspective

Friday, 3 April 2009

Might Brown dissolve parliament very soon?

Further to my previous post about the G20 summit and positive coverage Brown is getting, I am starting to wonder if my former confidence that Brown will go the distance is perhaps misplaced. I still think it most likely that the next General Election will be in May or June 2009, but if Brown has the balls he could surprise us all. As Peter Hoskin says here on the Spectator blog today:

Much as with one of Brown's Budgets, it takes at least a few days - if not weeks, months - for the charade to be picked up on by all the media, and to become the dominant narrative.

This chimes with what I was saying too. However, it really will take weeks or months before it becomes clear whether or not the G20 was a success. In the meantime, Brown has come across as a leading world statesman and is getting very positive coverage. It will not get any better than this for Brown.

There are all sort of problems in the economy, with MPs expenses and lots of Labour chickens from the last 12 years coming home to roost.

If I was Brown I would be very quietly considering calling a snap election. Because of our twisted electoral system, he can be a few points behind the Tories and still get a majority, or at the very least be the largest single party in parliament.

The odds are still with a long game but the generally positive reaction to Brown's G20 performance just made a quick election that bit more likely.

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