Thoughts on politics and life from a liberal perspective

Saturday, 30 May 2009

If the latest poll is right, Brown is finished

According to the latest ICM General Election voting intention survey for the Sunday Telegraph that I have just seen on Con Home shows the Conservatives on 40%, Lib Dems on 25% and Labour on 22%.

Now I should be careful here. We are in the midst of a major crisis of confidence in politics with all parties and many politicians affected. This poll could be a rogue or an outlier. As Mike Smithson would I am sure say we need to wait to see if the poll is corroborated by others.

However, if it is proven to be roughly right by further polls and/or the election results on Thursday then Brown is finished. Despite the practical difficulties in getting rid of him, his colleagues will have no choice. His colleagues will have to find a collective back bone and a way will have to be found to get him out.


Anonymous said...

Right can I call for a general election

Mark Thompson said...

Of course you can Mr Anonymous. You might have to join a pretty large queue though.

Unknown said...

But, Mark, who on earth would want to lead the Labour party to its biggest election defeat in history?

I think you are right to be cautious on this poll - but we certainly have everything to play for. I am a fine one to talk, being ill and unable to do much other than cheer from the sidelines, but if we needed motivation to redouble our efforts between now and Thursday, that poll is it.

Darrell said...


I also think you are right to be very cautious with this one; why? Well only yesterday a company that actually uses ICM to do their polling produced a 10% less figure for the Liberal Democrats. Something is very amiss with this one and I am also waiting to see a the actually tabulated data from this poll and subsequent polls.

What we can confirm from looking at previous polls is that Labour is taking the biggest hits over expenses; that to me seems to be an established trend. For differing reasons the Conservatives and Lib Dems are suffering (nor gaining) from it.

Darrell said...

*not suffering

Mark Thompson said...

Caron, I think you underestimate the self belief and vanity of some of the most senior politicians in this government.

I am certain that there are a number of cabinet ministers who think that they can turn this around, and even if they suspect they might not, better for the history books to have been PM for a few months and perhaps mitigated their losses than go down a forgotten cabinet minister who stood by and let the implosion happen.