49%
As Mark Pack tweeted last night, that's the percentage of people who according to a question asked in a recent YouGov survey would vote Lib Dem if they thought we could form the next government:
'How would you vote if thought LibDems "had a significant chance of winning the election nationally": LD 49% Con 25% Lab 19% YouGov 18-19/4'
We are already above 30% in some polls. I think it is also fair to say that the momentum is with us. Imagine what could happen if more and more people realised that an historic breakthrough is possible.
Now I don't want to get carried away here. Many activists like me are gobsmacked at how quickly we have jumped from c20% to c30% of the vote and are just hoping that the current numbers can be sustained let alone anything else. However I think this polling question demonstrates that it would at least be possible for us to do even better than we are at the moment.
UPDATE 10:23: Having been asked in the comments I have now been given a link to the data for the numbers referenced above. It is here. (Note: opens PDF)
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6 comments:
It's a high figure, but I don't think it's a 'blip'. Check out this from a few months before the election in 2005:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lib-dems-could-win-election-poll-shows-488834.html
So many people have always *wanted* to vote Lib Dem but been put off by the idea of 'letting Labour/Tories in'. When that fear is laid to rest, we're headed for victory.
BBC seat calculator seems to suggest approximately 40%:25%:23%:12% (LD:CON:LAB:Other) gives overall majority to LibDems. And still most seats for 37.5%.
Obviously this is a really dodgy calculation because we have to assume overall vote distribution and we don't know how good the underlying model is.
We just have to go for it. 40% or bust. It's a huge ask but what is the alternative?
This has been the case for every election for the last 30-40 years, apparently.
Nick really needs to hammer this home in every speech, every answer he gives from now on. Our strategy now should be to emphasise that only the Lib Dems can win the election outright - because that's what this surge means.
When was this survey? Can I get a link? This should be given as much exposure as humanly possible.
Ewan. I have asked Mark P. and the link is here:
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/YG-Archives-Sun-possGovts-19.04.pdf
I will update the main post with this now too.
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