Following the incredible YouGov poll result out today which puts the Lib Dems on 30% up 8 points and ahead of Labour, one thing that everyone is now wondering is if this is an outlier or a trend.
We won't know for sure until we see more polls (ComRes has one in the Indy tomorrow so we should see that later today). One thing that I am hearing a lot is speculation that it is just a short term post leader debate bounce and it cannot be sustained. Maybe. However Paul Waugh floated a fascinating idea yesterday:
The accepted wisdom today is that Clegg is under greater pressure because he's no longer the underdog and that his ratings can only now go down.But here's a different thought: what if there is a positive feedback effect? What if the TV debate honeymoon continues..and deepens as the campaign goes on? With every TV station now interested in his every move, he gets more coverage and respect than ever, which in turn leads to greater public awareness, which in turn leads to possibly greater support.Just a thought.
I don't know if this is what will happen but it is at least plausible. The truth is that one of the main reasons (perhaps even the main reason) that people give for not voting for us is because they think we cannot win. If suddenly that reason is no longer there then we are in unchartered territory and frankly all bets are off.
Let's see what the next couple of polls bring...