I was on Radio 5 Live last night at midnight doing the paper review on Stephen Nolan's show. As I was driving to the studio I heard the breaking news about the YouGov poll in today's Sun which puts the Conservatives on 33%, the Lib Dems on 30% (a huge 8% jump) and Labour on 28%.
Unfortunately, once I arrived at the studio, for some reason I could not fathom I was not able to get internet access working on my iPhone. I had wanted to run the figures through UK Polling Report's seat calculator before I went on air and I now so wish I had been able to because here are the results
That's right folks. If this was to play out, despite getting 30% of the vote, the Lib Dems would only get 15% of the seats. And despite the fact that Labour would come third overall with only 28% of the votes they would actually end up the single largest party and effectively "win" the election with 42% of the seats.
Luckily for me, one of the callers towards the end of the show had run the figures and so I was able to briefly make the point forcefully that this shows just how broken our electoral system is.
You will not see a more eloquent explanation of why that is than the table above.