Thoughts on politics and life from a liberal perspective

Tuesday, 9 June 2009

Alan Johnson could deny Tories a majority

According to a poll commissioned for today's Independent, Alan Johnson the Home Secretary could deny the Tories outright victory at a General Election.

The main figures from the poll (which also tests other potential candidates) are:

Alan Johnson, Home Secretary
Man most likely to succeed Gordon Brown if he is toppled before general election.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 36% Labour 26% Lib Dems 19% (Con six seats short of majority.)
Support among Labour identifiers: 76%

Gordon Brown, Prime Minister
Hoping to see off plotters as Cabinet did not join revolt
Election result with him as leader:
Con 38% Labour 22% Lib Dems 20% (Con majority: 74)
Support among Labour identifiers: 71 per cent

So The Tories would only have a 10 point lead with Johnson vs a 16 point lead with Brown.

Although this is interesting to note, I don't think it is going to be enough to make a difference now that a cabinet and then a PLP rebellion now seems to have been quashed. It is also interesting to note that the First Past the Post electoral system that the Conservatives are oh so keen to cling onto allows Labour to deny them a majority on just over a quarter of the vote!

Just as interesting however for me are the ones who also come close to Mr Johnson:

Jack Straw, Justice Secretary
His withdrawal of support could finish Brown.
Election result with him as leader:
Con 36% Labour 25% Lib Dems 19% (Con majority of 10)
Support among Labour identifiers: 71 per cent

David Miliband, Foreign Secretary
Raised profile last summer but campaign faltered
Election result with him as leader:
Con 37% Labour 25% Lib Dems 19% (Con majority: 30)
Support among Labour identifiers: 73%

It shows that for all the hype, Johnson is not the only one in the frame by any means. I thought David Miliband's chance had been done in by a banana but apparently not!

I am keen to see how these sorts of figures hold up over the next few months.

1 comment:

Cardinal Richelieu's mole said...

Surely the enthusiasm evidenced in the polls for some particular different leader of New Labour is substantially hype: the point is that Brown is shop-soiled, damaged goods in the eyes of the public and even a miracle economic recovery will not restore him as his character flaws and obnoxious behaviour have been exposed to scrutiny and made him repugnant.

So the enthusiasm per the polls is for anyone but Brown - and anyone who fleetingly captures the public’s attention in a good way will see his/her star rise. Outcomes per the poll under Johnson seem little different looking at the percentages from those under Miliband or Straw - so any “story” that the infotainment industry manufactures to promote Johnson over any of the others bar Brown seems at odds with the facts.