Thoughts on politics and life from a liberal perspective

Monday, 8 June 2009

PLP doesn't have the cojones

Surprise, surprise. Despite some calls from the "usual suspects" for Brown to stand down it appears that the PLP meeting that was billed as "make or break" for Gordon has turned out to be "make".

Swarms of loyalists are out right now spinning about how there was a small minority against him but the vast majority of the ranks are square behind him. It is starting to look like this rebellion is fizzling out. The cabinet and the PLP are too spineless to do the necessary and defenestrate Brown.

It seems that they are so fearful of losing their jobs in the General Election that there would be huge pressure for if Brown was replaced that they daren't risk it right now. That seems to now be the only thing that Brown has going for him.

However I have read both James Forsyth and John Rentoul argue very convincingly that his respite is temporary. The argument is that although they are scared to get rid of him right now, come the Autumn things flip. He will still be desperately unpopular and utterly useless as a leader but then an alternative leader could take over and with the nights drawing in, quite reasonably say that (s)he will call an election for early Spring, perhaps even name the date. That's roughly when Labour will have to go to the country anyway and the natural self-interest of Labour MPs switches to support someone, anyone but Gordon who can try to mitigate the annihilation.

So unless there is a game changer in the next few days, it looks like I might have to cough up my tenner to Charlotte and Kalvis.

However I may well pop down to the bookies and put a few quid on Brown not being PM by the end of the year. That seems certain now. So much so, that I wonder if I will even get odds on it.

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